December 30, 2017 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Hail | 1.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Cadeau de Paix | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Go | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 5A | 5 | Super Duper Girl | 20.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Mo Wine | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 1A | 1 | Possessive | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Lost Iron | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | We Were Kings | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Finnegan (IRE) | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Competitiveness | 2.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Caniform | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Kenyan | 15.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Classy Class | 1.40 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Vulcan’s Forge | 1.60 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Abiding Star | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Backsideofthemoon | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Bodhisattva | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | I Miss My Father | 1.20 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Noble and True | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Source Control | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Nut Nut | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Gun for Hire | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Secret Scholar | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Samurai Warrior | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Special Story | 2.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Holding Aces | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Fuel the Bern | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Holland Road | 2.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Sir Alfred | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Set the Trappe | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Summer Causeway | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | My Victoria Rose | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Trinni Ninja | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Starlite Mission | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Orchid Party | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Scorpion Bowl | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Breezy Gal | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | My Lightnin Strike | 15.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Sunshine Gal | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Giantinthemoonlite | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Saratoga Giro | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Cerretalto | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Jewel Can Disco | 2.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Mighty Zealous | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Love That Jazz | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | For Pops | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Chosen One Elijah | 50.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Damon Runyon S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Honor Up | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Empire Line | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Battle Station | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Audible | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sea Foam | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Jaye Jaye | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Analyze the Odds | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Evaluator | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Seven Lilies | 30.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Pequeno Grande | 3.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Zenato | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Trinni Juice | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Can’tweallgetalong | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Ghost Block | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Backstretch George | 10.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Purring On Empty | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Freudian Analyst | 20.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Mickey T | 30.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Won’t Be Missed | 20.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.