December 16, 2017 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Scarf It Down | 1.80 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Shadow Rider | 2.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | New Moon | 5.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Wingman | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | California Swing | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Battle Ready | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Alaapatique | 15.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Leah’s Dream | 2.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 10 | 10 | This Bird Can Sing | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Carry Your Heels | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Our Whim | 6.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Derval | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Party Spot | 5.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Holy Gold | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | It’s Cold Out | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Ola Gatita | 30.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Sophia’s Heart | 50.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Boule | 0.80 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Tasteful | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Full House | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Spring for More | 20.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Town Tart | 8.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Maddizaskar | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | Big Thicket | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Mickey T | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | In Him With Him | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15A | 15 | Wushu Warrior | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11A | 10 | It’s Hot Out | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Steelersfanforlife | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Beyond Honor | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Conforto | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Causforcelebration | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Banker’s Island | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Buss the Bell | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Niko Strong | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Vicar’s Legend | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Shiny Medal | 30.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | I’m Not Funny | 30.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Bluegrass Singer | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Sir Bond | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Bar None | 2.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Power Nap | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Drover Crazy | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | No Hiding Place | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Bluegrass Prevails | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Callant | 30.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Chosen One Elijah | 50.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | Scorpion Bowl | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Puffery | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Starlite Mission | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Velma | 4.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Seeking the Blue | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Queen Apollo | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Lady Moyne | 6.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Lady Vicki | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Bourbon High | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Barrel of Destiny | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lets Dance Some Mo | 15.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Sundance Joy | 30.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Trinni Ninja | 20.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Casigordo | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Gorelli | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Valyrian | 3.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Lucky Town | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Gehrig | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Check This Out | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Nut Nut | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Incorporate | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – New York Stallion Series S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Pure Silver | 1.40 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Miss Hot Stones | 1.60 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Wegetsdamunnys | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Aunt Babe | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Beaux Arts | 20.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Velvet Trinni | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Nominal Dollars | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Ro Bear | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Motown Sound | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Are We Not Men | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Nonna’s Boy | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Midnight Cello | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Try Flying | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Docs Legacy (IRE) | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Jet Black | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Spin Cycle | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | How’s Your Sugar | 20.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Big East | 30.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.