November 25, 2017 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Nuclear Option | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 5A | 5 | Battle Station | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Seven Trumpets | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Grade One | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 9A | 9 | Royal Holiday | 3.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | O’Malley’s March | 5.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Glennwood | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Supernumerary | 15.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Private Vigilante | 12.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Two Pops | 15.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Red Ruby | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Eskimo Kisses | 3.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Coach Rocks | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 3 | Mia d’Oro | 3.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Just Hattie | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Bartlett Narrows | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Ghosted | 30.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Triple Kapalua | 10.00 | 7.1 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Baydar | 12.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Eight Minute Ellie | 20.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 4A | 4 | Skeptic | 20.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Golden Rose | 15.00 | 11.1 | 21-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 7 | Macho Orb | 30.00 | 12.1 | 23-1 | |
| 14A | 14 | Ad In | 20.00 | 12.7 | 24-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Princess Warrior | 3.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Queen Mum | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Trust | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Emmport | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Cosmic Burst | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Go Google Yourself | 3.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Missap | 20.00 | 7.1 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Breaking Beauty | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 8 | Obsolete | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Grats Road | 30.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | War Eagle’s Love | 50.00 | 11 | 21-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 11 | Rare Form | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Funny Duck | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Come On Dover | 15.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Honey Dont | 3.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Novus | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 7 | Neverquitdreaming | 6.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Violent Storm | 6.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Little Kansas | 30.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Super Factor | 10.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Take That for Data | 12.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | Scr |
| 13 | 12 | Callmecash | 8.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Year of the Kitten | 8.00 | 10.7 | 20-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 8 | Royal Edition | 30.00 | 11.4 | 22-1 | |
| 16 | 16 | Blaze a Trail | 15.00 | 11.9 | 22-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 3 | Cause to Action | 20.00 | 13.9 | 26-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Skydere | 30.00 | 14.3 | 27-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Bootsy’s Hadenough | 2.50 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Party Club | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | Scr |
| 15 | 15 | Classy Act | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | Scr |
| 16 | 16 | Salt Bae | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 4 | Outgoing | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Champagne All Day | 5.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Unbridled’s Girl | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Lightning Twice | 8.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Lady Into Mischief | 8.00 | 7.1 | 14-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 9 | Ridgeline Hope | 6.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Caribbean Soul | 12.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Pointedlee | 8.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Unanimity | 12.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Pearl’s Opinion | 15.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Secret Message | 15.00 | 11.1 | 21-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Positive Vibes | 30.00 | 11.7 | 22-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 10 | Hint of Mint | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Fairyland | 4.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 4 | Mia Mischief | 1.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Lady O’Toole | 6.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 3 | Belles Orb | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | In the Mood | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Enrage | 12.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Big Axe | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 | Scr |
| 11 | 9 | Foxy Mischief | 20.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Honor With Pride | 6.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Amberspatriot | 20.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Joycee’s Spirit | 15.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Caramel Cream | 30.00 | 11.7 | 22-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 6 | La Dama | 30.00 | 12.7 | 24-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Bibbidibobbidi Boo | 30.00 | 13.7 | 26-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Dream Baby Dream | 1.80 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Welles Crowther | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Captain Cade | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Geyser | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Song of the Nile | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Perfect Seeker | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 16 | 16 | New York Central | 2.50 | 5.9 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 12 | 11 | Payne | 2.50 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Uber Kirk | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 11 | 10 | Chrome Shaft | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Soaring Bird | 12.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | J P’s Pride (IRE) | 12.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Menacing | 12.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Armchair Jockey | 12.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Tap Show | 30.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Arched Feather | 15.00 | 10.6 | 20-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Persephone’s Dawn | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Saucy Dame | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Beau Belle | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 11 | 10 | Gentle Ruler | 2.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Palmilla Moon | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Tropical Wave | 8.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Sippin Kitten | 8.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 17 | 17 | Security | 15.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Maxa Mia | 15.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Kojo’s Queen | 20.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 8 | Kittenistic | 8.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 16 | 16 | Paddys Class | 12.00 | 10.6 | 20-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 5 | Lessons From Avery | 12.00 | 10.9 | 21-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | One Chance Fancy | 20.00 | 12 | 23-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 3 | Trustee | 20.00 | 12.3 | 23-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Samurai’s Prize | 30.00 | 14 | 26-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Cucciolo | 30.00 | 14.7 | 28-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Golden Rod S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Monomoy Girl | 1.60 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Sultry | 4.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Road to Victory | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Ipanema Beach | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Kelly’s Humor | 5.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Cash Out | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Deadline | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Foxtrot Sally | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Stronger Than Ever | 15.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Dessert Honeys | 15.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Caroline the Great | 30.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Undivided | 30.00 | 11.4 | 22-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Mr. Recio | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Oskar Blues | 4.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Title Ready | 4.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Bandito | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 3 | Ebben | 5.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Jersey Justice | 5.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Dreamer’s Point | 4.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Dubby Dubbie | 30.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Stormcoast | 30.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Strolling | 50.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 8 | In a Fog | 30.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Stakes) – Kentucky Jockey Club S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Arrival | 12.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Quip | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Tiz Mischief | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Diamond King | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Promises Fulfilled | 8.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Givemeaminit | 6.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Peppered | 12.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Enticed | 4.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Gotta Go | 6.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Bravazo | 8.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Reride | 20.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Lone Sailor | 12.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | High North | 30.00 | 11 | 21-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | John Tippmann | 20.00 | 12 | 23-1 |
RACE NUMBER 12 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Mojo Man | 5.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Enjoy the Journey | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Victory Lane | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | One Thirty Nine | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sandville | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | Scr |
| 15 | 15 | Tiz McNamara | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 3 | Tapitor | 20.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Tiz Our Turn | 12.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Zing Zang | 10.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tweeter in Chief | 8.00 | 11 | 21-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Finished | 10.00 | 11 | 21-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Sacred Walk | 20.00 | 11.1 | 21-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 2 | Lascaux | 15.00 | 11.6 | 22-1 | |
| 16 | 16 | Talking Zip | 20.00 | 11.9 | 22-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 4 | Wilderness Gate | 10.00 | 12.4 | 23-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Cheytac | 15.00 | 12.6 | 24-1 | Scr |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.