November 23, 2017 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Five Man Wolf | 10.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Something Bird | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mischievous Dancer | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Syndicate Saver | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Analyzing | 1.60 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Silver Giant | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | B Dubya | 4.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Single Gem | 4.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Cheponera | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Hoptown Honey | 8.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Vindicta | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | The Weef | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | On the Clock | 4.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Medlin | 4.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Holiday Storm | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Little Miss Gabby | 12.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Stumberg | 8.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Pebble Slinger | 20.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Sheikh of Sheikhs | 2.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 2 | Kid Perfect | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Control Stake | 2.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 4 | Major Munnings | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Indy Hill | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 3 | Partly Mocha | 1.80 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | W. B. Smudge | 2.50 | 7 | 13-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Run to Freedom | 10.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Sunrise Countessa | 5.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Seattle Firm | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Baylynn | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Wood Not Mind | 2.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Munchies | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Li’lbito’gold | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Show Me Indy | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Generalsdottir | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 12 | McKeever | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Ever Special | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | On a Mission | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Happy Anniversary | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Hidden Garden | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Pampered Vow | 4.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Hello Linda | 30.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | I Miss You | 8.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Parking Ticket | 4.50 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Run Juja Run | 20.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 7 | Eloquent Moment | 10.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Marlene’s Queen | 50.00 | 12.3 | 23-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Tuppence | 30.00 | 12.8 | 24-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Tap of War | 3.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | I’mluckysgirl | 20.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 7 | True Boots | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Born to Be Winner | 20.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Miss O’Hara | 5.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Five Star Factor | 4.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Annathela | 2.50 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Daria’s Angel | 6.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Flatter the Queen | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Catinati | 12.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Perplexed | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Distorted Ransom | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Inclined to Dance | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Brave John | 6.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Surprise Prize | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Tizatalker | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bowman West | 10.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Rock Shandy | 6.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Beaver Trapper | 30.00 | 11 | 21-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Almoreb | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Zorzor | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | My Man Jax | 3.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 6 | Run Tappy | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Surf Shack | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | American Sea | 5.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Makeamericagreat | 2.50 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tapizone | 30.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Super Derecho | 20.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 16 | 16 | Tolstoy | 20.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | Scr |
| 17 | 17 | Teletap | 2.50 | 11 | 21-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 8 | Neon Gator | 5.00 | 11 | 21-1 | |
| 18 | 18 | Moneymeister | 10.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 10 | Contador | 30.00 | 12.5 | 24-1 | Scr |
| 11 | 9 | Arch Daddy | 8.00 | 14 | 26-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Big Bad Zin | 12.00 | 14 | 26-1 | Scr |
| 14 | 11 | Drayke’s Channel | 20.00 | 16.8 | 32-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | General Swag | 20.00 | 17.3 | 33-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Just Move On | 8.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Lookin for Eight | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Rocking the Boat | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | J Boys Echo | 2.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | C Z Rocket | 1.60 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Line Judge | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Greeley and Ben | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Minefield | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Falls City H.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Faithfully | 1.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Money’soncharlotte | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Tiger Moth | 10.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Blue Prize (ARG) | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Rachel’s Temper | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Motown Lady | 5.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Weep No More | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Stakes) – River City H.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Shining Copper | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Applicator | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Coco Mon | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Vettori Kin (BRZ) | 30.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Kasaqui (ARG) | 5.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Shotgun Kowboy | 30.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | War Correspondent | 4.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 14 | 13 | Thatcher Street | 15.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Team Colors | 30.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Gostisbehere | 50.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 5 | Revved Up | 4.50 | 10.5 | 20-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Some in Tieme (BRZ) | 15.00 | 11 | 21-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Turf Titan | 50.00 | 12 | 23-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 3 | Christian C | 30.00 | 13.5 | 26-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Zulu Alpha | 50.00 | 14.8 | 28-1 |
RACE NUMBER 12 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Tribal Transit | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Moolamiss | 8.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Blaze Star | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Mellwood Summer | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | French Oak | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Eye On Harper | 6.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Chasing Cars | 5.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Roan Feathers | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Controversy | 10.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Pretty Greeley | 10.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.