November 22, 2017 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Corbin | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Halifax | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Ragtime Rebel | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | To the King | 4.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Elsie Time | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Zapper Dan | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Beyond the Nile | 3.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 6 | Captivated | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Erin’s Wish | 3.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Choctaw | 15.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Our Adieu | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mango’s Muse | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Pocketfullofgreen | 3.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Alittlecomplicated | 2.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 5 | Wild About Jack | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Kate N Abs Reward | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Tanner’s Popsicle | 10.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Go Vo | 10.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Big Squeeze | 2.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Long Station | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Abbaa | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Black Bear | 3.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bourbon Cowboy | 2.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Merry Memories | 6.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Darion’s Dream | 1.60 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mizzencat | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Greely’s Comet | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Challenge Accepted | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Soul Strategy | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Stay Spicy | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Twilight Appeal | 2.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | North Princess | 10.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Papa Caliente | 4.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Tizpure | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 5 | No Limit | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Shakedown | 4.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Handsome Harve | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Leo Meister | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Let Me Loose | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 2 | Sunday Clothes | 6.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Aspiretogreatness | 12.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Stack Em High | 5.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Decision Time | 8.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Luke’s Cause | 12.00 | 11 | 21-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Tizwayorthehighway | 15.00 | 12.3 | 23-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Start a War | 8.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Red Blue and True | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Kiss My Note | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Alldaylong | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Preemptive Strike | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Dusty | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Tiz Always His Way | 6.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Ideal City | 8.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Psycho Cat | 6.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Pass Set Hit | 20.00 | 10 | 19-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 9 | Appealing Jazz | 15.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Trockette | 10.00 | 11 | 21-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Big Bob Kennedy | 12.00 | 12.3 | 23-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Spellker | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Touch of Bling | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tia Flor | 30.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Girls Know Best | 2.50 | 5 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 2 | D’boldest | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Miss Catwood | 50.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Bonnie Arch | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Dreamin | 4.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 10 | Excessivespending | 2.50 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | China Grove | 20.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Bahama Halo | 8.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Childhood | 5.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Melaleuca | 6.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Stapleton | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Sevier | 4.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | General Macarthur | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 6 | Brockton George | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Pitch Count | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Boyd Crowder | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Dublinyourmoney | 5.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Cash Money Always | 5.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Gold Ekati | 20.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Sutton Impact | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Takeittotheedge | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Ostentation | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Adulation | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Gray Sky | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Spring d’Oro | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Because It’s Time | 6.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Quality Emperor | 12.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bee Jersey | 2.50 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Class Won | 10.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | She’s Plain Jane | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 8 | Looks Super | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Chamade | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Safari Kitten | 5.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 13 | 10 | Red Dane (ITY) | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Sandstorm | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Focused | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | Scr |
| 15 | 15 | Sapphire Jubilee | 3.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 4 | Sunoof | 10.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Freedom | 2.50 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 16 | 16 | Front Row Debbie | 6.00 | 9 | 17-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 3 | Lifefullofreinbows | 15.00 | 11.8 | 22-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Anothertequilashot | 3.00 | 12.5 | 24-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | She’s Alotta Woman | 30.00 | 13.8 | 26-1 | Scr |
| 14 | 11 | Laudemio | 20.00 | 14 | 26-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Rollover Risk | 30.00 | 15 | 28-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.