November 18, 2017 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | Always a Catch | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Minecraft | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Svindahl | 15.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Alvear | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Commander Sport | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Cadet Captain | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Bleu Brave | 4.50 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Ft Davis | 12.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Taking Charge | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 1A | 10 | Montana Kid | 3.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Gung Ho | 20.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Valse | 5.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Costa Mesa | 30.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Ride a Comet | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Pucon | 4.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Cutter Helm | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Simba’s Pride | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Much Trouble | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Landonese | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Shiitake | 12.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | G’s Turn | 5.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Late Nite Mischief | 8.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Julie’s Jackpot | 20.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Stakes) – Mr. Sulu Overnight S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Trust Factor | 1.40 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Fort Pulaski | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Extra Credit | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Hail to the Nile | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 5 | Gallery | 30.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 7 | Fee Do | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mageez | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Jack Snipe’s | 10.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Thunderberg | 8.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Culp’s Hill | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Stakes) – Happy Ticket Overnight S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Ramona’s Wildcat | 8.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Sunny Oak | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Million Dollar Day | 12.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 2 | Wheatfield | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | My Miss Chiff | 5.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Naughty Little Nun | 30.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 11 | 9 | Jo Jo’s Wine | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Fairwell Tax Break | 20.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Look Into My Eyes | 5.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Play Unified | 10.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Half a Go Go | 12.00 | 11 | 21-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Lady Lutie | 50.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Stakes) – Si Cima Overnight S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 9 | Dontmesswithjoanne | 4.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Pacific Pink | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Smiley Briley | 15.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 12 | 10 | Calamity Jane | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Inveniam Viam | 3.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 14 | 12 | Discreetly Grand | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Reine des Animaux | 8.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Temple Shadow | 30.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Vivacious V. V. | 30.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Big Game Baby | 30.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Safari Calamari | 4.50 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Pera | 30.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Bermuda Star | 12.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Wind Chill Factor | 12.00 | 12.5 | 24-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Stakes) – Heitai Overnight S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Icy Gentleman | 4.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Eden Grey’s Kitten | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Philly | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Stand Him Up | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Biblical Strength | 30.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Made to Fit | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | John’s Luck | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Grande Basin | 6.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Wonder Run | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 7 | Sir Genghis | 4.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | King Bandit | 20.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Minit to Stardom | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Starlet Guitar | 4.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Old Fashion Amour | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | My Nilla | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | She Sang Dixie | 4.50 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Sarah’s Prayer | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Carson’s Prospect | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Memory Magic | 8.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Selene’s Argument | 8.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Fame Feather | 6.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 7 | Running Unbridled | 15.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Flat Out Big Money | 15.00 | 12.5 | 24-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Shezaffirmedbeauty | 15.00 | 13 | 25-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Exotic Sin | 15.00 | 13.3 | 25-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Divine Bean | 4.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Future Ruler | 4.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Combined | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Miracle Master | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Pleaser | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 4 | Nothings Changed | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Horace Charles | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Violent Ways | 8.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Crimson Jet | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Mr. Carlos | 10.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Aw Shucks | 8.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 1A | 11 | Aint There No More | 15.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Andthebandplayedon | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Feisty Embrace | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Flying Rosie | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | D’ Cat | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Cool Kitty | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Tether | 5.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Cotton Eye Gem | 6.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Angelic Score | 0.80 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Express Yourself | 12.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Track Teller | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dixie Jackpot | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Annie Had a Baby | 4.50 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Beauley | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.