The AFC playoff picture is clearer than what anyone would have thought once Week 10 ended.
The usual suspects remain there and a few teams have looked quite surprising, but all things considered, we can have a pretty good idea of which teams will make the playoffs this season. Let’s analyze each division individually:
AFC North
Let’s kick things off in the AFC North, a division where the Pittsburgh Steelers once again look like the top team with no clear opponent that can contend against them. Pittsburgh has a three-game lead over the Baltimore Ravens (4-5), a four-game advantage over the Cincinnati Bengals (3-6) and are nine games over the winless Cleveland Browns (0-9) who might be out of the playoffs already (not mathematically, but you guys get the point.)
The Ravens have been subpar on offense, the Bengals have struggled with consistency all year long, and the Browns… are the Browns, which is already bad enough. Pittsburgh came close to a shocking defeat against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 10, but they are riding a four-game winning streak and have the potential to be even better. They certainly are a team to watch down the stretch, because they can go all the way if their offense starts clicking.
AFC South
There are seven weeks left in the NFL regular season, but it seems the closest race for a Division title resides in the AFC South. Once dubbed the worst division in the NFL, this year features two teams three games over .500 and another two that, had their quarterbacks been healthy, they would surely have something to say as well. Despite their shortcomings, this is one of the most surprising – and even – divisions in the league.
The Jacksonville Jaguars and the Tennessee Titans are at the top with a 6-3 record, although the Titans have the tie-breaker after winning over Jacksonville earlier this season. Both teams are on a roll as well; Tennessee has four straight wins and Jacksonville three, including a heart-breaking win over Los Angeles Chargers this past Sunday. Both will battle for the division title until the end of the regular season and, to make things more interesting, both will play at Tennessee in Week 17.
Below them, we can find the Houston Texans (3-6) and the Indianapolis Colts (3-7), although both missed their starting quarterbacks – Deshaun Watson and Andrew Luck – for the remainder of the year with injuries. Considering both are at least three games behind Jacksonville and Tennessee with seven and six games left, respectively, their chances of making the playoffs are slim to none. At this point, it would be better for them to lose as many games as possible to land a higher pick in next year’s Draft.
AFC East
Fans were quick to discard the New England Patriots, and some even thought they would have problems to win the division this year. After all, the Buffalo Bills and the New York Jets had started their respective seasons better than expected. But if we fast forward until Week 10, it seems this division is New England’s to lose. Once again, like it has been during the entire decade.
The Patriots sit at the top of the AFC East with a 7-2 record and already own a two-game lead over the Bills, who are 5-4. The Miami Dolphins are 4-5 after losing to the Carolina Panthers on Monday, and the Jets are at the bottom with a 4-6 record. The best-case scenario has either Miami or Buffalo battling for a Wild Card spot, but don’t count on it. And the Patriots are likely to cruise their way to another AFC East title. The same they have clinched 13 out of the last 14 seasons.
AFC West
Last but not least, we have the AFC West. The Kansas City Chiefs do not look like the out-of-this-world team they were at the start of the season, and both Alex Smith and Kareem Hunt have regressed significantly. But they have been good enough to hold the division lead rather comfortably with a 6-3 record. Unless there’s a miracle happening, the Chiefs are making the playoffs either with a Division title or as a Wild Card team. But they’re getting there.
The Oakland Raiders (4-5) sit in second place, but they shouldn’t be much of a threat. Despite having most of the same roster from last season and adding Marshawn Lynch to enhance their running game, things have not clicked for Oakland. They have looked pretty bad on offense due to regressions from both Derek Carr and Amari Cooper.
The Los Angeles Chargers and the Denver Broncos are at 3-6, but neither team has enough weapons to turn things around due to their problems on the offensive side of the ball. Both are riding losing streaks, too, as the Chargers have lost their past two while the Broncos dropped their last five. That is not going to cut it.