November 16, 2017 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Gypsy Janie | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Surprising Twist | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | My Dark Secret | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lunaris | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Uno Sueno | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Penance | 3.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Lullingstone | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Burgameister | 1.40 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Fudge Proud | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Cass in Stone | 2.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Top Credentials | 15.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Higher Factor | 5.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Maximus Dan | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Spatetacular Joe | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Dreaming of J C | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Just Be Frank | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | El Mas Puro | 20.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Magnanimus Man | 3.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lord Revelstoke | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Pickford | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Toothpic | 4.50 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Blanco S | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Rocket Warrior | 5.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Thelifeoftheparty | 15.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Mines and Magic | 1.60 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Ready to Confess | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Polar River | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Julerette | 2.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Miner’s Cat | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Cleverness | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Memphisinmay | 8.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Pistone Steel | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Toasting Master | 2.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Torazo | 15.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Let’s Meet in Rio | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Sharm | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 5 | Misterbulltoyou | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Fuhrious Warrior | 8.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Vacanza | 4.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 4 | Sassy Sienna | 8.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 15 | 8 | Julia’s Kitty | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 6 | Regal Dame | 15.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Breaking Beauty | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | Scr |
| 13 | 13 | In the Mood | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 5 | Over Thinking | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Moonlight Rain | 10.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Lenamarie | 3.00 | 8 | 15-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 2 | Miss Mo Mentum | 2.50 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Big Axe | 10.00 | 9 | 17-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 3 | Arabella Bella | 15.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Malibu Saint | 4.50 | 10 | 19-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 2 | Passion Plus | 12.00 | 12.5 | 24-1 | Scr |
| 12 | 12 | Undivided | 10.00 | 13 | 25-1 | Scr |
| 14 | 7 | Lesia Jane | 30.00 | 14.3 | 27-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Mojo Street | 4.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Commander Lute | 8.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | St. Padriag | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Oh My Gravy | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Galatasaray | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Thirteen Roses | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 8 | Northeast Bound | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Gabriel’s Cat | 8.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Spinning for Home | 6.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | King Coral | 5.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bro Stroll | 30.00 | 11 | 21-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Glitterati Gal | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Ain’t Dat Sweet | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Promissory Note | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 9 | Cheeky Cherub | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Noho | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 7 | Data Star | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Fake News and Data | 30.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 16 | 16 | A Girl Has No Name | 15.00 | 9 | 17-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 2 | Cicatrix | 12.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Zoey’s My Girl | 8.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 3 | Lesley May | 3.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Sistas Ready | 12.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Heart and Pray | 15.00 | 11.8 | 22-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Traci’s Greeley | 10.00 | 12.5 | 24-1 | |
| 14 | 12 | Evening Tide | 15.00 | 14 | 26-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Trilby | 15.00 | 15.8 | 30-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 8 | Capital Letters | 4.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | Fifth Title | 3.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | High Noon Rider | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 4 | United Stand | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 5 | Pinson | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | It’s Your Nickel | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 12 | 12 | Go Navy Go | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 17 | 17 | Sir Navigator | 4.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 15 | 7 | Shareholder Value | 5.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Derby Champagne | 6.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 4 | Space Mountain | 5.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 2 | Krewe Chief | 15.00 | 12.3 | 23-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bingo Kitten | 4.50 | 12.5 | 24-1 | Scr |
| 13 | 13 | Bombs Away | 6.00 | 12.5 | 24-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 9 | Saham | 4.00 | 13 | 25-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Trovatore | 30.00 | 14.8 | 28-1 | |
| 11 | 6 | Mr. Meister | 12.00 | 15.8 | 30-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Benediction | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | New York Boy | 10.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Small Town Hero | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Safe Passage | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Tabaddol | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 7 | Ransom’s Love | 30.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Memorial Blue | 12.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dr. Philan | 10.00 | 8 | 15-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 2 | Oriental Crown | 8.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Sabbatarian | 6.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Nan’s Pierce Arrow | 12.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Due to His Charm | 20.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Out of the Trappe | 15.00 | 12 | 23-1 | Scr |
| 13 | 11 | And Thank You | 15.00 | 12.5 | 24-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.