November 16, 2017 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Loyal Heart | 10.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 2 | Arewehavingfunyet | 1.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Maddizaskar | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Spa Town Parade | 20.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Milaya | 2.00 | 5 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 3 | Perina’s Pride | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 5 | Corey Q | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Grandpa’s Arianna | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Justenuff Hope | 20.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 2 | Grand Banks | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Jacqueline D | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Crater Rim | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | Scr |
| 11 | 11 | Lady Allyn | 30.00 | 7 | 13-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 10 | Elegant Jem | 4.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 3 | Tulips Galore | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Courageous Change | 20.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Lady Love | 30.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | One More Song | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Madame Barbarian | 2.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Another Genius | 1.80 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Promise Me Tiz | 20.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Splash of Sass | 2.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Over My Head | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Rain On The Dune (GB) | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Gifted Lady | 20.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Pounds to Pennies | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Merger Arbitrage | 3.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Lil Mo Gold | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Greatreviews | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Forever Wife | 5.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Momentiempo | 12.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Aoife | 6.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Frosty Gal | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Decorator Jenn | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Quick On the Draw | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lady Bergen | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Cool as You Like | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tainted Angel | 2.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Satin Sheets | 5.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Desert Isle | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Miss Aliphant | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Mominou | 20.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | South of the Shore | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Fly So High | 3.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Take Charge Tina | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Cadeau de Paix | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Moviemaker | 10.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Lil T N Lorraine | 15.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Lemoona | 10.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Ballston | 20.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | J S Bach | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Fratello Del Nord | 20.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Marriage Fever | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Old Upstart | 5.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Padilla | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Set the Trappe | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Praetereo | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Point Hope | 3.50 | 7.3 | 14-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 3 | Dogtown | 20.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Paid Admission | 5.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Runaway Lute | 5.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 9 | Sandy’z Slew | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Dr. Shane | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Changewilldoyagood | 4.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 8 | Speightful Kitten | 5.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Dream Doctor | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Whiskey Seven | 3.50 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | E J’s Legacy | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | The Crocheron Kid | 12.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Grand Sky | 2.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Banana Thief | 6.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Cliffs of Dover | 30.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | She’s Cookin | 8.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Forever Rising | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Paz the Wine | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Itsthemoney | 20.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Havana Affair | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Madame Ambassador | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tweet Street | 30.00 | 7 | 13-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 5 | Icy Girl | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Cetara | 4.00 | 9 | 17-1 | Scr |
| 11 | 8 | Tiffany’s Vision | 50.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Reconsider It | 20.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | Scr |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.