November 15, 2017 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Ender | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Morally Inflexible | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Forty Acres | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Sidavi | 5.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Promote | 3.50 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cataroux | 4.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Auntie’s the One | 2.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Lilt | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Gull Island | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Deauville Mist | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Runninwiththewind | 2.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Strombolian | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Brilliant Kitten | 1.40 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Golden Fire Fly | 15.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Freedom Works | 15.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Bird Street | 2.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 2 | Indy’s Finesse | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | North of Eden | 2.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Admiral’s Bride | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Need the Wall | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 1A | 4 | Tales of Mischief | 20.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | My Lady Dowry | 20.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 1 | Shaker Baker | 4.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Pastiche | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Circus Rings | 3.50 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Lady Margaret | 6.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Cipherin’ Sue | 3.50 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Baby Got Shack | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Mushaboom | 12.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Moon Gun | 4.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Xanto | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tiznow R J | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Solitary Ranger | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Triple Creek | 3.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Couldn’tklairless | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Forty Grinder | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Faithful Neighbor | 8.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Shezaprado | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | Scr |
| 11 | 11 | Maryblueeyes | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 2 | Galilea | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Lake Turkana | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Queenofthepalace (NZ) | 3.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 9 | In a Flury | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 3 | Unbridled Courage | 6.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 5 | Tiz Kismet | 4.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Rascofrade | 4.50 | 8.5 | 16-1 | Scr |
| 14 | 14 | Bella Be Proud | 20.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 1 | Baetykaty | 15.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Jokasa | 15.00 | 12 | 23-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 4 | Tequila and Salt | 15.00 | 12.5 | 24-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | First Embrace | 10.00 | 12.8 | 24-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Baby Spencer | 5.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Herald Square | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Serious I Candy | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Our Bernattete | 15.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Jeanne’s Speight | 1.80 | 5.5 | 10-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 7 | Kiva Girl | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Marnie Star | 30.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Moment of Triumph | 5.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tapizar’s Magic | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Sworn Silence | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | More Monique | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 3 | Rahway | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bellissima Indy | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Beach Waltz | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Rose Candy | 4.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Shackira Shackira | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Truckstop Diamond | 6.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | Scr |
| 11 | 8 | Riva Belle | 12.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Mollyball | 12.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Simply Fit | 12.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Tapit At Ann | 30.00 | 12 | 23-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 9 | Sensitive | 2.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | Scr |
| 14 | 6 | Its a Journey | 5.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Stonetacular | 4.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Sully’s Dream | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Seeking Treasure | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 13 | 14 | Lady Soul | 6.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 4 | Majestic Angel | 12.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Lilly’s Dream | 4.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | Scr |
| 12 | 5 | Titanium | 5.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Bonnie Arch | 12.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 5 | Yahtzee Queen | 20.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | Scr |
| 1A | 12 | Skyluck | 12.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 6 | Savannah Belle | 10.00 | 12.8 | 24-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 3 | Lori’s Store | 6.00 | 12.8 | 24-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 3 | You Cheated | 20.00 | 13.3 | 25-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 10 | Rolin With Olin | 5.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Arathorn | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Purimeter | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Avery Glenn | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Bellarmine | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Roberto Gato | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Shooters Alley | 30.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | At Guard | 3.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Swarm | 10.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ambidextrous Alex | 12.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Li’l J | 20.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | Scr |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.