November 11, 2017 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Rocky Tough | 2.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sir Ballantine | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Tonbo | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Gorse | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Howell Mountain | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Moon Over Montana | 3.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Charlie de Hustle | 15.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Supernumerary | 1.20 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Raining Moolah | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Dalaman | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Aces and Eights | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Cash Ticket | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 7 | Treetop Flyer | 5.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | News Box | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Pete Marwick | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | True Wisdom | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Little Kansas | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Augie | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | You’re Killin Me | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Articulator | 5.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Best of Greeley | 4.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Uncle Pappy | 15.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Itwillbealright | 12.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Big Changes | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Strike Your Light | 30.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Flashy Chelsey | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Oak Brook | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Net Gain | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Revved Up | 5.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Bandar | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Zambian | 5.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Band of Thieves | 5.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Stonewall Boy | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Revolutionize | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Fields of Dreams | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 2 | Mr. Gibbs | 3.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Granian | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Angaston | 6.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Red Alert | 10.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Bella Verde | 3.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Bella Belle | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | True Boots | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | I’mluckysgirl | 20.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tap to It | 4.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Verna Lea | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Foul Play | 6.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 17 | Let’s Roll | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 16 | 16 | Vindicta | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 14 | 12 | Coach Rocks | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Shamrock Babe | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Sunapee | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 5 | Mahvelous Kitten | 4.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Americagreatagain | 12.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Deadline | 4.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Chocolate Martini | 15.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Tapitai | 10.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Pretty At War | 4.50 | 11 | 21-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | A Girl Has No Name | 30.00 | 11 | 21-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 7 | Love Mo | 3.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Woman Flyer | 20.00 | 12.5 | 24-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Jukebox Money | 10.00 | 13 | 25-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lil Moresummertime | 20.00 | 15.8 | 30-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Brassy and Sassy | 30.00 | 16.8 | 32-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Read the Cards | 5.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Still Chief | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Nite of the Hunter | 3.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Chasing Greg | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Infinitys Moon | 30.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Rod McLeod | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Pea Shooter Pro | 6.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Lagoon of Diamonds | 10.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Starship Mercury | 15.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Easy Doer | 8.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Grosco (MEX) | 30.00 | 11 | 21-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Eyesonthelady | 20.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 | Scr |
| 3A | 3 | Notaninja | 15.00 | 12.3 | 23-1 | |
| 15A | 15 | Latin Wild Cat | 15.00 | 12.5 | 24-1 | Scr |
| 14 | 14 | Sky Blue Mongolia | 20.00 | 14.3 | 27-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Almoreb | 10.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Run Tappy | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Such a Tease | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bold Prophet | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Remembering Rita | 30.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Warrior’s Dream | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Tapsolute | 3.50 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Fireball Shot | 2.50 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Broomhill | 30.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | I’m a Lucky Guy | 15.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Commonwealth Turf S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Sharm El Sheikh | 50.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Tiz a Slam | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Mr. Misunderstood | 0.80 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | My Bariley | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Gorgeous Kitten | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Parlor | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Giant Payday | 5.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mr Cub | 6.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Spearette | 15.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Filly Madison | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Kickin Grass | 20.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Susie’s Daddy | 4.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Hopeful Joy | 2.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Greeley and Ariana | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Norwegian Lady | 30.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | North Captiva | 30.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Awesome Gal | 3.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Zemo | 30.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Gerlinde | 30.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Imallaboutthatbass | 20.00 | 11 | 21-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.