Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, November 11, 2017

November 11, 2017 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.


Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
9 7 Deep Sea 5.00 1.3 2-1
4 4 Delta Outlaw 12.00 3.9 7-1
6 6 Caniform 3.00 4.4 8-1
1 1 Thaddeus 3.50 4.6 9-1
10A 8 Combat Controller 5.00 4.9 9-1
7 7 Hard Hitter 6.00 5.6 11-1 Scr
8 8 Playthatfunnymusic 30.00 6.1 12-1 Scr
2A 2 Bar None 5.00 6.7 13-1
3 3 Little Schmo 8.00 7.9 15-1
5 5 Southern Union 10.00 9.7 18-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
2 2 Ode to the Hunt 4.00 2.1 4-1
1 1 One of a Kind 12.00 3.7 7-1
10 10 Rappel 2.50 4.4 8-1
3 3 Jo’s Bold Cat 8.00 4.7 9-1
5 5 Escape Velocity 10.00 5.3 10-1
6 6 Mr. Dougie Fresh 6.00 5.9 11-1
9 9 Long Night 15.00 6 11-1
7 7 Hy Brasil 20.00 6.3 12-1
4 4 City Traveler 5.00 7.9 15-1
12 12 Lost Iron 3.00 9.7 18-1 Scr
13 13 Bunyaan 15.00 10 19-1 Scr
11 11 Independent Worker 30.00 12.1 23-1 Scr
8 8 Money Illusion 20.00 12.9 24-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
2 2 Runaway Lute 10.00 3.3 6-1
5 5 Saratoga Giro 8.00 3.4 6-1
3 3 Giantinthemoonlite 3.00 3.6 7-1
7 7 Nobody Move 4.00 4.6 9-1
9 9 Heavy Meddle 5.00 4.7 9-1
1 1 Tribecca 15.00 5.6 11-1
8 8 Blue Belt 6.00 6.1 12-1
4 4 Cause for Surprise 6.00 6.7 13-1
6 6 Brimstone 10.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
12 12 Collective Effort 2.50 1.6 3-1
7 7 Iron Johnny 3.50 2.7 5-1
13 13 Work of Art 3.00 3.4 6-1 Scr
5 5 Encryption Key 5.00 4.7 9-1
16 16 Mr. Hot Rocks 2.00 6.1 12-1 Scr
15 15 Ten Eyck 4.00 6.7 13-1 Scr
8 8 More Than a Saint 6.00 7 13-1
3 3 Paganini 12.00 7.7 15-1
6 6 Colonel Tom 8.00 8.4 16-1
2 2 Presentao 20.00 8.4 16-1
10 10 Mickey T 20.00 9.4 18-1
1 1 Tell Me Ma 12.00 10.4 20-1
9 9 Leap to Glory 20.00 11 21-1
4 4 Save the Sangria 20.00 11.3 21-1
14 14 Sir Frost 30.00 12.1 23-1 Scr
11 11 Shook Em Up 20.00 12.9 24-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
9 8 Blame the Thief 5.00 2.4 5-1
2 1 Mascarello 3.50 3.7 7-1
7 6 Dearie 30.00 5.4 10-1
8A 7 Clutch Cargo 4.00 5.6 11-1
3 2 Ides of Arch 6.00 5.6 11-1
5 4 River Knight 12.00 6.1 12-1
10 9 Get Game 15.00 6.3 12-1
1 1 Ross Boss 20.00 6.4 12-1 Scr
6 5 Trophy Asset 2.50 6.6 12-1
11A 10 Heart in Hand 4.00 8.7 16-1
4 3 Street Fightin Man 20.00 9.1 17-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
2 2 Allured 3.00 1.9 4-1
10 8 Labeq 8.00 2.3 4-1
3 3 Variant Perception 3.50 2.4 5-1
9 7 Home Run Maker 5.00 4.1 8-1
7A 6 Vino Rosso 4.00 4.7 9-1
5A 5 Blinded Vision 4.00 6.1 12-1 Scr
6 5 Latin Quarter 15.00 6.1 12-1
4 4 Capo Dei Capi 15.00 6.7 13-1
8B 8 Personal Time 12.00 6.9 13-1 Scr
11B 9 On Patrol 12.00 7.1 14-1
1 1 Point to Remember 8.00 7.4 14-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
13 13 Abiding Star 6.00 3 6-1 Scr
14 14 Alex the Terror 2.50 3.1 6-1 Scr
3 3 Tathqeef 10.00 5 9-1
12 12 Kantune 4.00 6 11-1
4 4 Aquaphobia 5.00 6.1 12-1
2 2 Souper Tapit 15.00 6.7 13-1
5 5 Slim Shadey (GB) 8.00 7 13-1
7 7 Toughest ‘Ombre 12.00 7.7 15-1
8 8 Tusk 12.00 8.3 16-1
1 1 For Greater Glory 20.00 8.7 16-1
9 9 Cloontia 6.00 9.7 18-1
10 10 Classic Covey 3.00 10.1 19-1
6 6 Atlantic Sun (GB) 20.00 11.1 21-1
11 11 Total Tap 20.00 11.9 22-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Red Smith H.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
5 4 Oscar Nominated 8.00 3.9 7-1
3 2 Get Jets 6.00 4.6 9-1
2 1 Money Multiplier 2.50 4.9 9-1
12 10 Messi (GER) 10.00 5.3 10-1
6 6 Turco Bravo (CHI) 3.00 5.4 10-1 Scr
11 9 Tricked Up 30.00 5.6 11-1
7 5 Spring Quality 12.00 5.9 11-1
9 7 Hunter O’Riley 4.00 6.9 13-1
10 8 Call Provision 5.00 7.4 14-1
4 3 Memories of Peter 20.00 8.1 15-1
8 6 Soluble (GER) 20.00 9.3 18-1
1 1 St. Louie 20.00 10.9 21-1 Scr

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
5 5 Giant Rocks 4.00 2.9 5-1
11 10 Tiz Wicked 20.00 3.4 6-1
7 7 Catapult Jack 6.00 4.4 8-1
3 3 Mydadfloyd 3.50 4.9 9-1
8 8 Dooley 8.00 5 9-1
14 14 St. Patrick Frost 20.00 5.6 11-1 Scr
6 6 Thenameescapesme 5.00 7.3 14-1
4 4 Big Auk 20.00 7.9 15-1
12 11 Pimm’s Cup 10.00 8.1 15-1
2 2 The I Man 12.00 9.1 17-1
1 1 Clonedsimmard 20.00 9.7 18-1
10 9 The Donald Problem 30.00 11.7 22-1
9 9 Dublin Express 50.00 11.9 22-1 Scr
13 12 Pom Freight 20.00 13.1 25-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.