November 10, 2017 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Saucy At Midnight | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Got Moxie | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | La Femme Royale | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Bringyourownbottle | 2.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lady Rubi | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Hail Spring | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Lonely Petunia | 2.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Karla With a K | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | La Majestique | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2A | 1 | Northern Connect | 2.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1A | 1 | Ritzy Lass | 2.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 3 | Mizz Tutu | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | On Her Honor | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Delusional K K | 2.50 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Cheray | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Clever Serve | 2.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | One Dollar | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Nautia | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Jemrose | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Indian Gem | 3.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Little Irishdancer | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bernadreamy | 6.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Miss Acorn | 30.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Rosie P | 4.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Nineteenth Street | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Girls Know Best | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Lightning Dove | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Bizzee Mischief | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Red Hot Suzy | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Jersey Heist | 4.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mia Bella Rossa | 6.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Unmoored | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Imma Bling | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 8 | Noshackleshere | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 2 | K Wave | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Irritator | 3.50 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Saratoga Syndicate | 4.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Mooose | 30.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Hoosier Zip | 5.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | Read the Cards | 5.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 7 | Forge Ahead Franki | 1.80 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Dr. Calahan | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 16 | 16 | Chasing Greg | 20.00 | 5 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 12 | 11 | Big Coulee | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Include Indycat | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 4 | Renn Lake | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Nite of the Hunter | 6.00 | 7 | 13-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 8 | Cha Mono | 6.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Baraway | 20.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Battered | 12.00 | 11 | 21-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Bobby V. | 10.00 | 11.8 | 22-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Backlash | 12.00 | 12 | 23-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Beach Hut | 12.00 | 13 | 25-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 6 | Frost Or Frippery | 15.00 | 13 | 25-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Trident Hero | 20.00 | 15.3 | 29-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Demolition | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ecru | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Nottoway | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | Scr |
| 11 | 10 | Run Trouble Run | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | King Zachary | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 14A | 14 | Lascaux | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | Scr |
| 12 | 11 | Locomotion | 12.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Jonathan McD | 5.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mercertown | 20.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Jimmy Joe | 20.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 8A | 7 | Hill Bent | 15.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Principe Guilherme | 10.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mustang Cat | 8.00 | 11 | 21-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Rocket Warrior | 12.00 | 12.8 | 24-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Get the Facts | 4.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Tres Equis | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Private Eye | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Grandpa Knows Best | 3.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Make Noise | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Lone Rock | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Boxing Glove | 5.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Colonel Fred | 10.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14A | 14 | Mines and Magic | 12.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | Scr |
| 13 | 13 | Ready to Confess | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 9 | Celestial Insight | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 10A | 10 | Hone In | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Sweet Tapper | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Miss Gossip (IRE) | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Wealthy Shipman | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Mo Knows | 3.50 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Browse | 2.50 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Shes a True Beauty | 15.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Strive | 15.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Cleverness | 20.00 | 12 | 23-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Titled | 20.00 | 13 | 25-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Sweet N Wicked | 20.00 | 14 | 26-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Diamond Delight | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Auston’s Hat Trick | 10.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Malibu At Midnight | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Levanto (ARG) | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Border Force | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | First Exchange | 30.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Justanotherbird | 5.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Jon Knowsthecode | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Dirty Day | 12.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Mizzing Frazier | 20.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Copper Munn | 15.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Mister Humor | 12.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.