November 9, 2017 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Scatmeifucan | 5.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Stella Nova | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mercer Slough | 20.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Big Red Seven | 4.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Racey Reecey | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Crack Your Whip | 3.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Mello Kisses | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Chargingonby | 5.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Hunka Burning Love | 3.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | All Shacked Up | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Quiet Dude | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Hardly a Secret | 4.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Conquest Wildcat | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Your Secret’s Safe | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Crawford | 4.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | So Refined | 4.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 7 | Miss Katie Bug | 2.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Mo Chara | 30.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Holly Go Lightly | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Sahara Breeze | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Don’t Tell Lydia | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Study Hard | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Lessons From Avery | 4.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Big Kick | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Allidoisdreamofyou | 10.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Futile | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Warden of the West | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Philoctetes | 4.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Hat of Jacks | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | El Charro | 10.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | El Bonito | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Channel Nine | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Sea Shack | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Sophie’s Angel | 5.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ghost Jumper | 20.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Rahway | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 3 | Secret Spender | 6.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Cash Register | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Bellissima Indy | 6.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 4 | Elusive Mist | 15.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Majestic Bold | 3.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Shulamite Lady | 15.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Three Spokes | 12.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Awesome Day | 5.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Truckstop Diamond | 10.00 | 11.8 | 22-1 | Scr |
| 16 | 16 | Tapit At Ann | 20.00 | 14.8 | 28-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 6 | Lily Maria | 20.00 | 16 | 30-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Durango | 5.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Put Da Blame On Me | 1.60 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Barbary Hall | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Profound Moment | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Dreamin | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Malibu Princess | 5.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | Dr Givens | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 4 | Methuselah | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Conquest Stormy | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Rollin Smoke | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 6 | Uhwarrie Sky | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Young American | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Conquest Mystique | 4.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Higher Factor | 12.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 7 | Humor | 4.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Spectacularxchange | 20.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Santa Americana | 10.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Snag | 2.50 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tito Tonight | 8.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Altered Mind | 8.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 | Scr |
| 15 | 15 | Spatetacular Joe | 15.00 | 14.3 | 27-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Spectre Bond | 2.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 4 | Zip Van Winkle | 12.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Spikes Shirl | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Behavioral Bias | 1.60 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Grandpa’s Dream | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Faction Cat | 3.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Fulkerson | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Zapperini | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Secret House | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Camp Creek | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Our Track | 20.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Honovi | 4.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Run Time | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Richmond Street | 4.00 | 6 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 3 | War Bond | 4.50 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Uncle Mitcho | 15.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Aikenetta | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Wily | 12.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 6 | Candy Striper | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Lovemelikeyoudo | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Silver Soiree | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Charlie’s No Angel | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Krissy’s Candy | 4.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | She’s Alotta Woman | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 4 | White Gold Chanel | 8.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Miss Lyricist | 30.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Spring Break Girls | 30.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Trueamericanbeauty | 30.00 | 12 | 23-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.