November 4, 2017 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Bourne in Nixa | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mr Ashley | 8.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Potential Danger | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Sanderstead | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Dreamer’s Point | 1.20 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Private Vigilante | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 4 | Ervsayslethergo | 12.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Ma’am | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Quick Thinker | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Prado Vision | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Aife | 4.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Lovin Empire (JPN) | 2.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Rocket Girl | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | First Embrace | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 3 | Leeloo’s Journey | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Just Hattie | 1.60 | 1 | 2-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 2 | Patti Patti Patti | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Caramel Cream | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Splashing | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Radar Vision | 4.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Pebble Slinger | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Woody’s Reward | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Maria Rose | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Ransack | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Cutacorner | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 2 | Art Imitates Life | 15.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Mineyerownmalone | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Moon Gate Warrior | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Irish You Well | 5.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Louies Flower | 6.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Richie the Bull | 15.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Jack Tripp | 8.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bud’s Bayonet | 15.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Repent With Me | 10.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 1 | Dancing Waves (IRE) | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Merry Memories | 15.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Scat Lady | 30.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 4 | Shezaprado | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | Scr |
| 15 | 8 | Shea’s Cool | 5.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 5 | Cinder | 3.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Trust in Diane | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 10 | Like a Hurricane | 8.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | Scr |
| 13 | 7 | Avisionofchocolate | 15.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 8 | 4 | Jokasa | 5.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 6 | 2 | Americium | 15.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 12 | 6 | Heir Apparent | 30.00 | 12 | 23-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Altered Mind | 12.00 | 12.5 | 24-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 3 | Iwishitwouldrain | 15.00 | 12.8 | 24-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Already Packed | 20.00 | 14.5 | 27-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | It Is Dejavu | 3.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Distorted Ransom | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Spezia | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 4 | Riding High | 20.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Mistake Present | 3.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Nicky Numbers | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Dos Cuernos | 5.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Harlan’s Dynamo | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Tiz Always His Way | 15.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Promises to Keep | 10.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Cliff’s Notes | 30.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Beaver Trapper | 15.00 | 11.8 | 22-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Trockette | 20.00 | 11.8 | 22-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 7 | Royal Creed | 1.80 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Grade One | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | Scr |
| 12 | 10 | Zip Your Lip | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Rare Form | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Tenkoz | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Mine My Time | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hours Truly | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 5 | Dark Templar | 8.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Run Trouble Run | 12.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 3 | Pop Culture | 6.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Talking Zip | 15.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Giant Honor | 30.00 | 12.3 | 23-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Southeast | 15.00 | 12.8 | 24-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 16 | Run the Alley | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 7 | United Stand | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Adonis Creed (FR) | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Dr Givens | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | Scr |
| 13 | 8 | Wicked Stride | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Takeoff | 3.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Iconic | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Morocco | 4.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 6 | Watch Me Whip | 6.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Irish Proud | 20.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 5 | Oxford Lane | 15.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Harlan Strong (ARG) | 8.00 | 11.8 | 22-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 1 | Hard Fought | 20.00 | 12.5 | 24-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mambo At the Gym | 10.00 | 12.8 | 24-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 8 | D C Nine | 15.00 | 14.3 | 27-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Flash Harry | 12.00 | 14.8 | 28-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Chilukki S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 9 | Shenandoah Queen | 5.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Mo d’Amour | 10.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Tiger Moth | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Money’soncharlotte | 4.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Farrell | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 15 | 13 | Moiety | 30.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Alpine Sky | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Show Stealer | 15.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Steel Cut | 20.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Julerette | 20.00 | 10 | 19-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 4 | Rattataptap | 12.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | Scr |
| 14 | 12 | Kathballu | 5.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Motown Lady | 8.00 | 12.5 | 24-1 | |
| 16 | 14 | Sweet Legacy | 30.00 | 12.8 | 24-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Lake Ponchatrain | 20.00 | 13 | 25-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Fuhriously Kissed | 20.00 | 15 | 28-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Golden Amber | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Heavenly Hill | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Eight Barking Dogs | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Ladonia | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Fashion Bid | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Faith Healer | 4.50 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Socata | 4.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Madison Kat | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Pearl of the Nile | 12.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Fond Hope | 12.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Kay Two | 12.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.