November 1, 2017 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Hour City | 3.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Neapolitan | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | On John | 15.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Border Force | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Harangue | 3.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Arizona | 4.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Factor Me In | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Sevier | 3.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Inclined to Dance | 12.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Truly a Moon Shot | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Fudge Proud | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Awesome Fu | 3.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Beltway | 4.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Young American | 4.50 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Tizatalker | 12.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Lookin for Eight | 1.80 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Gray Sky | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Majesto | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Totality | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Dublinyourmoney | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Class Won | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Forever d’Oro | 3.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 6 | Crazy Ivan | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Last Drop of Wine | 2.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | Scr |
| 11 | 8 | Peas and Carrots | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | The Babyson | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Tre Lee Divine | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Dr Spaulding | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 4 | Aspiretogreatness | 8.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Dirty Diamonddeeds | 10.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Black Bomber | 6.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | Scr |
| 12 | 10 | Rocky Roma | 10.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 1 | 9 | Miss You Jo | 12.00 | 11 | 21-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Derby Dreamer | 6.00 | 12 | 23-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 5 | Cerulean Springs | 8.00 | 12 | 23-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Code Eleven Eleven | 8.00 | 12.3 | 23-1 | Scr |
| 1A | 16 | Aint There No More | 12.00 | 12.8 | 24-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 7 | Worktab | 8.00 | 13.5 | 26-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Shamrock Babe | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 | Scr |
| 17 | 6 | Dessert Honeys | 1.60 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Key Moment | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | American Frolic | 3.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | You Flatter Me | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 10 | Skipped | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 9 | Sweet Cause | 8.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | Scr |
| 14 | 14 | Classy Act | 3.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | Scr |
| 16 | 16 | Tapitai | 12.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 3 | Lemon Drop Twist | 10.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Paddys Class | 3.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Infinite Grace | 12.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Miss Subzero | 12.00 | 12 | 23-1 | Scr |
| 15 | 15 | Lynah Rink | 12.00 | 13 | 25-1 | Scr |
| 12 | 12 | Solitaire Kitten | 12.00 | 14.8 | 28-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 6 | Keep the Ring | 15.00 | 15 | 28-1 | Scr |
| 13 | 13 | Sweetsongofthenile | 30.00 | 17 | 32-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 4 | Poseidon’s Way | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 2 | Heat It Up Rich | 8.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Rankhasprivileges | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Master Lightning | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Sky Alert | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | St. Padriag | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Goal | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 6 | Star Dog | 3.50 | 6.5 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 1A | 3 | Gabriel’s Cat | 8.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 4 | 5 | Northeast Bound | 12.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Ain’t too Proud | 15.00 | 11 | 21-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | Cash Tiz Wonderful | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 8 | Queen of Corona | 10.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Very Elegant | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Seeking Bull | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 1A | 6 | Myositis Mystique | 3.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 10 | Buch of Daisies | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 9 | Easy Attitude | 6.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Okbyecya | 4.50 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Haute Prospect | 12.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 7 | Ordinary Love | 12.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Idonowidont | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 5 | Dreamadreamforme | 15.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 4 | Runninwiththewind | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 2 | To Be Famous | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 5 | Economies of Scale | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Front Row Debbie | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 3 | Cat Walk | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sapphire Jubilee | 3.50 | 7.8 | 15-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 7 | Tootsie Pie | 50.00 | 9 | 17-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 4 | Anothertequilashot | 4.50 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Tweety Show | 50.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Shy | 15.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1A | 9 | Valadorna | 1.20 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Its a Journey | 8.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mo’s M V P | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Larkin | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 5 | Run to the Beat | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mannerly | 1.20 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Vieja Luna | 8.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bay of Puck | 30.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Felt in Pocket | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 7 | Sugar Cube | 10.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Toasted | 8.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Dreamcall | 6.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 16 | Demands Attention | 4.00 | 1 | 2-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 3 | Honor Thy Father | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Start a War | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Kiss My Note | 4.50 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dusty | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Red Blue and True | 30.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Correctamundo | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 4 | Cataroux | 6.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Ideal City | 8.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 7 | All Hansens Ondeck | 5.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Santa Monica Beach | 12.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Southern Cross | 12.00 | 12.8 | 24-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Awesome Mil | 30.00 | 13 | 25-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Big Bob Kennedy | 6.00 | 13.5 | 26-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 6 | Ain’t in No Hurry | 12.00 | 14 | 26-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Pickmeupasixpack | 20.00 | 14 | 26-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.