October 8, 2017 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Will Gracie Shine | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 3 | Yooou Den | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sweet Reef | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Northern Screamer | 1.60 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Zeta Zody | 5.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Too Cool | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Ticket to Riches | 6.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Budget Cut | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Loom | 20.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Stonetacular | 1.60 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Julerette | 4.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Beach Flower | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Lady Soul | 4.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Toasted | 3.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Discreetly Grand | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Hunka Burning Love | 5.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | All Shacked Up | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Enchantera | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | The Money Monster | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Forty Acres | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Line Judge | 4.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Bluegrass Gem | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 3 | Conquest Sure Shot | 5.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Reckling | 8.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Ever Special | 12.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lovemelikeyoudo | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | One Dollar | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lil Miss Blue Eyes | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Desert Poem | 5.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Spearette | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Union Silk | 5.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Awesome Gal | 4.50 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Jeremiah Jewel | 8.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Shezappealing | 20.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 4 | Mom’s On Strike | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 11 | 5 | Never Grow Old | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Awesome Boss | 4.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Market Top | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | Scr |
| 13 | 13 | Billboard | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 3 | Mo’s M V P | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Tamit (IRE) | 6.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 2 | Na Pali Spirit | 20.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 15 | 7 | Dance Proposal | 4.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Coco Channel | 10.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 5 | Peaceful Passage | 8.00 | 9 | 17-1 | Scr |
| 12 | 6 | Lovin Empire (JPN) | 6.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Phantom Opening | 8.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | Scr |
| 14 | 14 | First Embrace | 30.00 | 14.3 | 27-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 8 | Ellens Birthday | 30.00 | 14.8 | 28-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Storm Advisory | 8.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Rocket Time | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Rockinn On Bye | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Clear the Mine | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Rated R Superstar | 3.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Catholic Cowboy | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Grand Candy | 3.50 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Lou’s Chardonnay | 10.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Saucy Dame | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Riesling | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | So Refined | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Fonda Romana | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Dreams Are Free | 10.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Lady Bay | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Mia Mischief | 1.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Tiz a Legacy | 12.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Golden Rose | 12.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Zoey’s My Girl | 8.00 | 10 | 19-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | On the Clock | 8.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Flash n’ Dance | 8.00 | 11.8 | 22-1 | Scr |
| 16 | 16 | Mimi’s Ruby Bobby | 12.00 | 12 | 23-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 10 | Fake News and Data | 30.00 | 12.3 | 23-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 9 | Hep to Go | 20.00 | 15.5 | 29-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Dixiana Bourbon S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 11 | Flameaway | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Admiralty Pier | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 14 | 13 | Arawak | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Machtree | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 6 | Budro Talking | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Captivating Moon | 5.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Trenton Traveler | 30.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tigers Rule | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | John Tippmann | 8.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tap Daddy | 4.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 15 | 14 | Shared Value | 30.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Wicked Trick | 30.00 | 12 | 23-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | High Providence | 15.00 | 12.3 | 23-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Fred’stwirlincandy | 15.00 | 12.8 | 24-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | King Valero | 20.00 | 14.3 | 27-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Juddmonte Spinster S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 6 | Bar of Gold | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Martini Glass | 12.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Mo d’Amour | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 2 | You Know Too | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Lockdown | 3.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | A Place to Shine | 30.00 | 7 | 13-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 3 | Duchess of Duke | 50.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Tiger Moth | 6.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Turkish Tabby | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 8 | Blue Prize (ARG) | 5.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Factory of Faith | 30.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Romantic Vision | 5.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Katalust | 50.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Iconic | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 16 | 11 | Hour City | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 3 | Reprove | 4.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 8 | Campioni | 30.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Huntin Buddy | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 7 | Yondering | 10.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 13 | 9 | Contador | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Runninwiththewind | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | American Deluxe | 15.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 7 | Sport | 6.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 4 | Markitoff | 4.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 15 | 10 | Going Rate | 15.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 2 | Kaliningrad | 15.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 8 | Shahroze (IRE) | 4.00 | 12.8 | 24-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 6 | General Swag | 50.00 | 14.3 | 27-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Beyond the Nile | 50.00 | 15.3 | 29-1 | Scr |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.