October 1, 2017 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Noshackleshere | 0.00 | 0.8 | 1-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Warrior’s Passion | 0.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Arlen’s Prospect | 0.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Monday Confession | 0.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Outrun the Posse | 0.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Infinite Midnight | 0.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Kitten’s Cat | 0.00 | 0.8 | 1-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 4 | Sekondi | 0.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | One of a Kind | 0.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Perfect Movement | 0.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | All Right | 0.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | P J’s Awesome | 0.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Thirsty Actor | 0.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | He’s Cheeky | 0.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Red Dread | 0.00 | 0.8 | 1-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Espressa | 0.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Julia’s Kitty | 0.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Richie’slilwildcat | 0.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Ailish’s Buttercup | 0.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Mauk’s Tuff | 0.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Ensign | 0.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Sunshine Cake | 0.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Ultra Arumba (BRZ) | 0.00 | 0.8 | 1-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 2 | Stormin’ Jorja | 0.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Disones Pretty | 0.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Gingermore | 0.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Meadow Gem | 0.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hold Me Tight | 0.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | I Got It | 0.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Capriasca | 0.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Picaboo Rose | 0.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Blue Ridge Girl | 0.00 | 0.8 | 1-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Maline | 0.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Herald Square | 0.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Unfading Beauty | 0.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Eye On Harper | 0.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Push Come to Shove | 0.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Hello Linda | 0.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Right On By | 0.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Kiva Girl | 0.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Miss Lyricist | 0.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 7 | Greeley and Ariana | 0.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Willowamina | 0.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Netas | 0.00 | 0.8 | 1-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Combined | 0.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Strategic Ekati | 0.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | It’s a Major Award | 0.00 | 3 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 9 | Paynter’s Boy | 0.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Tweeter in Chief | 0.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Shiitake | 0.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Shadow Sphinx | 0.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Applewood | 0.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Single Gem | 0.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Speaker John | 0.00 | 0.8 | 1-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | It Is Dejavu | 0.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Tempestuous Angel | 0.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Awesome Fu | 0.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | All Go | 0.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tabaddol | 0.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Silent Decree | 0.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | Scr |
| 13 | 11 | Oso Ready | 0.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Mistake Present | 0.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | K L S Forty Three | 0.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Promote | 0.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Bowman West | 0.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Dos Cuernos | 0.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Royal Son | 0.00 | 0.8 | 1-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Go Navy Go | 0.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Zapperini | 0.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Ain’t Misbehavin | 0.00 | 3 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Derby Champagne | 0.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Egyptian | 0.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Adventist | 0.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Zulu Alpha | 0.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lucky Ramsey | 0.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Rich Daddy | 0.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 8 | Zambian | 0.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Honor Ride | 0.00 | 0.8 | 1-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 9 | Bemus Point | 0.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Song of Spring | 0.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Fun | 0.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Pageant Material | 0.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Loran Holiday (ARG) | 0.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Jemrose | 0.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Dreamcall | 0.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bernadreamy | 0.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Holiday Music | 0.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Drinks On Broadway | 0.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Miss Acorn | 0.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Souper Smart | 0.00 | 0.8 | 1-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | One Thirty Nine | 0.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Dream Baby Dream | 0.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Honor the Empire | 0.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Zanesville | 0.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tizpure | 0.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Handsome Harve | 0.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Wilderness Gate | 0.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Run Your Race | 0.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Menacing | 0.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Schoenhardt | 0.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.