September 29, 2017 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Patti Patti Patti | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Ashy Taty | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Lucky No Robbery | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Timuquana Place | 4.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Sophie’s Angel | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Bringyourownbottle | 3.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Rock On Sandy | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Sevier | 4.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Power Walker | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Irritator | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Tam Tam Attack | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Crawford | 2.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Junket | 5.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Bluegrass Beat | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Dujac | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Nite of the Hunter | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | California Coast | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mineyerownmalone | 3.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Union Bowman | 3.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Bold Shot | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Lunaris | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Valiant Lady | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Bellissima Indy | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Phearless Phyllis | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1A | 12 | My Girl Janelle | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 2 | Tiz de Lovely | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | She Da Woman | 5.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Laila’s Jewel | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 8 | Medlin | 12.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Port of Indy | 15.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Awesome Day | 10.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Kieran Street | 30.00 | 12 | 23-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Clever Serve | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 1 | Polar Vortex | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Ring Me Up | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Dancing Waves (IRE) | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Bella Bella | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Shezaprado | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Aife | 6.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Air Turbulence | 4.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 8 | Like a Hurricane | 10.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 1A | 12 | Bernadreamy | 10.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 3 | Iwishitwouldrain | 20.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Petillante | 10.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Honor Thy Father | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Colonel Swinson | 10.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Private Party | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Safe Passage | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Crushing Powder | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 5 | Wathnan | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Pontastic | 3.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Pass Set Hit | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Fairway Lane | 12.00 | 8 | 15-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 1 | Steel Shot | 3.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Combined | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 13 | 10 | El Mas Puro | 15.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Grandpa Knows Best | 4.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Karen’s Cove | 6.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 2B | 16 | Ohmymic | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 4 | Elkhorn Poet | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Seauxtale | 10.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 7 | Fight On | 3.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 12 | Thekidsback | 20.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | Bandito | 10.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 11 | Coastbuster | 15.00 | 11.8 | 22-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Double Deep | 15.00 | 11.8 | 22-1 | |
| 1A | 15 | Menacing | 15.00 | 13.5 | 26-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 6 | Boots | 15.00 | 14.5 | 27-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Arched Feather | 30.00 | 15.3 | 29-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Lady Cleopatra | 12.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Sealed With a Kiss | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Endless Thyme | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Bizzee Mischief | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Grantastica | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Avisionofchocolate | 4.50 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Heir Apparent | 5.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | One Sharp Lady | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 6 | Miss Stalwart | 5.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Open Invitation | 12.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Golden Dragon | 10.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Fort Wise Treaty | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | El Rubio | 15.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Artie’s Rumor | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | East Rand | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Sky Promise | 3.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Magic Musketier | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Trusting Friend | 4.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 4 | Exigent | 12.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Northern Trail | 4.50 | 8.5 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Ironclad | 4.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 3 | Political Justice | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 2 | Where Y’at Joe Joe | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Abbaa | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 6 | Wabel | 3.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mellow Fellow | 30.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 2 | Catanova | 6.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 6 | Roskilde | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 5 | Hebbronville | 8.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 8 | 4 | Stormy Pacific | 6.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 11 | 7 | Sharm | 20.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.