September 24, 2017 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Diamonds for Leah | 3.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Baetykaty | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Rose to Glory | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tujuacagofast | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Yooou Den | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Secret Trick | 5.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 14 | Netas | 8.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 7 | Burnside | 3.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Nepthene | 2.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Forgotten Coast | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | War Tom | 5.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Sandville | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Killeen | 5.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Ohmymic | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | Scr |
| 11 | 11 | Antrim’s Giant | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Art of the Dream | 15.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Good Offense | 12.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Super Factor | 20.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Finished | 12.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Royal Edition | 20.00 | 10.6 | 20-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 4 | Sevenheartswarrior | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Art Vandaley | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Haynesome | 15.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 13 | 9 | Comedy Zone | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Cool Ambition | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Polar Bear | 4.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 2 | Justanotherbird | 6.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 8 | American Ride | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Levanto (ARG) | 6.00 | 8 | 15-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 2 | Headliner | 10.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 3 | Smoken Velvet | 15.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Prideofsevenhearts | 30.00 | 11.7 | 22-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Indian Bull | 12.00 | 12 | 23-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Mesoma | 1.60 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Big Squeeze | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Manhattan Mischief | 2.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Black Bear | 4.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Dark Arden | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Allidoisdreamofyou | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Tarpon Bay Road | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Powerful Ally | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Tag’s Red Ripper | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Teletap | 2.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Huntin Buddy | 30.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Fireball Shot | 3.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Conquest Gladiator | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | All Day Trip | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 14 | Linburgh’s Kitten | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 4 | Mr. Discretionary | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Kowboy Posse | 15.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mine My Time | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Mr. Recio | 8.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Novus | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Mischievous Dancer | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Shared Value | 6.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Silver Giant | 15.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Bo Tee | 8.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Combatant | 6.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Bandito | 10.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 7 | Want | 10.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Beckham’s Joy | 12.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | On a Mission | 5.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Serious I Candy | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Socata | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Deauville Mist | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Silva Queen | 3.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Union Silk | 4.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Kickin Grass | 30.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Iron Lilly | 6.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Blue Chicory | 15.00 | 7.1 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Full Heart | 4.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Heat Road | 12.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bud’s Bayonet | 2.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Rippin Ranger | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Oriental Crown | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 5 | Stan’s Old Habits | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | He’s All Mine | 12.00 | 7.1 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | The Last Prophet | 8.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Street Factor | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Dontmesswithjoanne | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Wolf Gourmet | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Song of Spring | 2.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 2 | La Sola Ranger | 2.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Pageant Material | 3.50 | 5.7 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 5 | Ma’am | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Lunar Lullaby | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Mundy Road | 8.00 | 7.1 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Queen Anne’s Lace | 20.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | I Remember Mama | 8.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | She’sadowntowngirl | 30.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Conquest Bad Uncle | 6.00 | 11.6 | 22-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Bernadreamy | 4.00 | 12.7 | 24-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Kitten’s Slew | 30.00 | 13.4 | 25-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Issued | 50.00 | 14.1 | 27-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Watch My Smoke | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Include Indycat | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Pat’s Shoes | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Northeast Bound | 3.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Oh My Gravy | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | St. Padriag | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Stratocruiser | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Rage Riot | 3.50 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Galatasaray | 12.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | The Right Thing | 12.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Star Dog | 20.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.