September 23, 2017 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 6 | Church Road | 3.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Dandy Gal | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Can She Scoot | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 3 | Case Cracker | 1.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Flin Flon | 20.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Three Cat Rules | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 5 | Meadow Mystique | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Nook | 8.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Singingintheheat | 5.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Smoke ‘n’ Gloat | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 2 | Wagon Boss | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Devileye | 4.50 | 5 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 4 | Flashdance Road | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Half of Manhattan | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Voodoo Spell | 6.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Nun the Less | 4.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Cashel Rock | 20.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Miss Blue Dot | 10.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Fashion’s Touch | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Scarlet Bow | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Strollin the Bayou | 3.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | More Monique | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Helen Hayes | 3.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Ava Atticus | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Take Wing | 6.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Don’t Hold Queens | 30.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Dancing Nora | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 6 | Roar of the Lion | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Divine Holiday | 8.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 2 | Jax Heritage | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | King of the Score | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Supermans Cape | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Suspenders | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sacred Legacy | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Distracted | 6.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 8 | Hart Hills Road | 8.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 5 | Mas Mischief | 4.50 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Rio Seco | 30.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Wake Up Joe | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 5 | Pablo Del Monte | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Wildwood Dancer | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bajan Rhythm | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Midnight Blue Note | 3.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | I Forgot It’s Name | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Iter | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Unscathed | 5.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Franklin County | 30.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Bushrod | 8.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Saidtomyself | 30.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | I Shod the Sheriff | 10.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 | Scr |
| 11 | 9 | Welovecandy | 30.00 | 12 | 23-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | If You Build It | 15.00 | 13 | 25-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Stakes) – Les Ahrens Memorial S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Chip Leader | 8.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Applicator | 4.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Coco Mon | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Oak Brook | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Kasaqui (ARG) | 1.20 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Spring Up | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 2 | Christian C | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 7 | Imposing Will | 30.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 3 | Cammack | 10.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 10 | 6 | Crewman | 30.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Channel Won | 15.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Milliner | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Andreas | 12.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Don’task Don’ttell | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Rock Can Tour | 4.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Thunder Down Under | 3.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Crown Moment | 30.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Drayke’s Channel | 8.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Travel West | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Lovingrdsimmar | 30.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | The Shoe | 30.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Steve Morgan Memorial S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Seeking Treasure | 15.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 8 | Sweetbaby | 30.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 7 | Prado’s Sweet Ride | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | One Last Shot | 30.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Lovely Loyree | 3.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Paint the Corners | 30.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Some Say So | 30.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 13 | 9 | America Mon Amie | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Daddy’s Boo | 5.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Stormin Elle | 20.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Felt in Pocket | 30.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 5 | Shelbysmile | 4.50 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Inconclusive | 30.00 | 11.8 | 22-1 | Scr |
| 14 | 10 | Disqualified | 50.00 | 14 | 26-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Jolee | 6.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Applesolutely True | 5.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Royalty Princess | 15.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Cooper’s Keeper | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 4 | Goddess of Kip | 4.50 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Tannah’blu | 6.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Kalispell | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Chlobee | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Pura Lica | 12.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Mallory’s Channel | 8.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Americanperfection | 20.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Curlinup | 6.00 | 11 | 21-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Chica Bonita | 20.00 | 12 | 23-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Return of the Rock | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | A J’s Posse | 12.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Changn Fivehundred | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Alabama Son | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 8 | Kit Check | 6.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Holy Brass | 30.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Solanair | 12.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Another Richie | 12.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | Scr |
| 14 | 14 | As You Do | 10.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 7 | Purr’s Along | 12.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Oscarific | 2.50 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Lord Turnem | 12.00 | 11 | 21-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Ours Again | 10.00 | 11.8 | 22-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Chas Tom | 30.00 | 12.5 | 24-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Giant Mongolian | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 9 | Call Me Courageous | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Je Suis Belle | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Atruevision | 30.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Reminisce | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Atlantic Gulch | 8.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Dancing High | 30.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Kara’s Angel | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Turned Back Twice | 15.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Octacato | 6.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Hide and Street | 3.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Hurraca | 30.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 12 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 9 | Summer Sweet | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Soul Singer | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Whisper Inthe Wind | 30.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | She’s Ventastic | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 8 | Blame T J | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Glowing Gracie | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Elusive Ryder | 6.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Tizdian | 30.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Classy Woman | 20.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Staria Peach | 12.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 3 | Sea Diva | 6.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Flash N Go | 8.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Sugarsugarsugar | 8.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Majestic Meadow | 30.00 | 13.8 | 26-1 | Scr |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.