September 22, 2017 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Grace At Midnight | 2.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cause You Can | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | My Sugar | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | I. Damiana | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Okbyecya | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mine as Well | 4.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Capital Letters | 2.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Rocky Tough | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Thirstforlife | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Hardly a Secret | 4.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Arch Revenge | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Boxer Boy | 4.50 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Carnoustie | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Valentine Rosie | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Clever Serve | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 5 | My Kinda Devil | 3.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Wholehearted | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Merry Memories | 4.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Market Top | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Legallini | 4.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 2 | Na Pali Spirit | 6.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Shaker Baker | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | The Weef | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Emerald Candy | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Lonely Petunia | 3.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Uno Sueno | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Sharon’s Thunder | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Pebble Slinger | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Cheating Ex | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Lady Margaret | 8.00 | 7.1 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | B Deb’s Fortune | 20.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Como Se Llama | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Arsenalofdemocracy | 12.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Tiree | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Battered | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Swipernoswiping | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | More Than Shirl | 4.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Nobadeer | 2.50 | 6.6 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 7 | Baraway | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Rippin Ride | 5.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Such a Tease | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Total Cooperation | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Battle Colors | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Makeamericagreat | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Precocious Moon | 20.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Warrior’s Dream | 30.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Bee Jersey | 3.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 6 | Terzaluna | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Southern Soul | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Squardron Fourteen | 50.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Honor Thy Father | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Demands Attention | 4.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 8 | Spezia | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | Scr |
| 12 | 8 | Joey B | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Start a War | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Out of the Office | 6.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 6 | Chester Mon | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Cataroux | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Kiss My Note | 12.00 | 8 | 15-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Hugh B. | 8.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 11 | 7 | Ain’t in No Hurry | 6.00 | 11 | 21-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Trockette | 50.00 | 11.1 | 21-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | My Eminence | 4.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Adulation | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Teodoro | 20.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Strident | 6.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 5 | Broomhill | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Changer | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Final Tally | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 1 | La Maquina Gris | 10.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Mono | 5.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Dreamology | 6.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Fort Fortitude | 12.00 | 8 | 15-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Make Noise | 8.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Mr Ashley | 15.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Beautiful Game | 3.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Fields of Dreams | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Private Vigilante | 6.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Northern Trail | 3.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 5 | Potential Danger | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Trappezoid | 10.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Granian | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Mr. Gibbs | 15.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 3 | Undercover Lover | 15.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Cutler | 30.00 | 12 | 23-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Happy Anniversary | 4.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Mizzencat | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Fancy Pinstripes | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Hidden Garden | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Super Shack | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Family Label | 4.50 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Run Juja Run | 8.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Klassie Connect | 12.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Chargers Miss | 12.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Get the Girls Out | 15.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Tuppence | 15.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Sky Trail | 20.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Whiskey Chick | 15.00 | 10.7 | 20-1 | Scr |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.