September 22, 2017 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 5 | Costly King | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Talent and Grace | 15.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 6 | Disorderly Conduct | 1.80 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Chu Chu Johnnie | 30.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Stranglehold | 4.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Offlee Fun | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Oltre’ Oro | 5.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Thats It Imleaving | 12.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 4 | Magic Command | 8.00 | 8 | 15-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Savage Battle | 1.40 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Grey Mask | 12.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Russell Cave | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Last Spring | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Mister Fudge | 1.80 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Sync O’Paddy | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Back At the Ranch | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Betruetoyourschool | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 3 | Celtic Gold | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Larissa’s Love | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | High Heel Lady | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | R U Forreal | 5.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Supercede | 4.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Dundalk Bay | 6.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Back Page Star | 2.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Oh So Terrible | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Brisson | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Something Kinky | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Cause Ioya | 4.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Holy Cookie | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Brewmistress | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sark Lady | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Mr Dewey | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | Scr |
| 11 | 8 | Cortege | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Cov | 20.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 7 | Moonlight Mischief | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Golden Gift | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Intrepid Humor | 6.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | He’s Cheeky | 2.50 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Strict Observance | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Red Corvette | 6.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Spanish Justice | 12.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Mas Mischief | 12.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Royal Change | 4.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 4 | Toll Guard | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | American Sparrow | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Volgograd | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Boogie Man | 4.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Prospect Point | 30.00 | 6 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 2 | Hannity | 30.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bulldog of Bergen | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Savemethelastdance | 5.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | White Pass | 3.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Sturn Donna | 2.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Eva Destruction | 30.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Cuddle Me | 15.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Cruzin Copper | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 2 | Ms. Big Cash | 2.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bold Drama | 30.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 6 | Gritty Kitty | 4.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Lucy Lucy Lucy | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Choteau | 20.00 | 3 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 11 | 10 | Summertime Gal | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Nifty Nellie | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Silver Plume | 30.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Mongolian Time | 3.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Jiffy Jenni | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Silvera | 3.50 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Maria | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Greeley’s Demon | 5.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Dial the Doctor | 8.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | La Activa | 30.00 | 11 | 21-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | She’s Fine Tuned | 3.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Road to Zanzibar | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Sidneyscent | 30.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Ice Princess Emily | 30.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Altered Mind | 1.80 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Icalledyoubyname | 30.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Ain’t That Funny | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Ally Song | 4.50 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mi Hermanita | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Zosia | 30.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Glimmer of Light | 30.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Kantastic | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Lion Love | 12.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 6 | I Call | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Scoreearlyandoften | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Kuringai | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Binary Bourbon | 3.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bearing Secrets | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Helen Hayes | 8.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 7 | Callmewhatever | 10.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 5 | Manhattan’s Angel | 20.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.