September 21, 2017 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Dancing Dove | 3.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Five Star Nap | 2.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Northern Connect | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Delusional K K | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Crack Your Whip | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Dustem Carolina | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Handy Candy | 2.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Whole Lotta Luck | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Whateverybodywants | 2.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ostentation | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Purgenality | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Private Time | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | U S S Altair | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Sabbatarian | 10.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Grandpa Frank | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Mosca | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Takedown | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Cannonshot | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Schliffy | 5.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | The Babyson | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 1A | 11 | Dalaman | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 7 | Cofveve | 20.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | I’m a Space Cowboy | 15.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Decision Time | 20.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Burnt Bluff | 12.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Black Bomber | 20.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Cosmic Burst | 8.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Bootsy’s Hadenough | 4.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Queen Mum | 2.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Ghosted | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Security | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Foxtrot Sally | 5.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 5 | Jazzy Doll | 15.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 16 | 16 | Skip’s Song | 10.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | Scr |
| 12 | 12 | Dagney’s Warrior | 20.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Querceta | 8.00 | 10 | 19-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 3 | As I Please | 4.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Princessof the Nyl | 15.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Morning Belle | 15.00 | 12.5 | 24-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Royal Road | 6.00 | 13.3 | 25-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Malibu Treasure | 12.00 | 13.3 | 25-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Brassy and Sassy | 30.00 | 15.3 | 29-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Timido | 4.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 3 | Pistol Patti | 15.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Dame Wicked | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Arcelor | 3.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Golden Fire Fly | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Twilight Appeal | 3.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Junethesecond | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Dominant Class | 5.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Budget Cut | 10.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Idonowidont | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 1A | 5 | Pocket of Aces | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Go Stellaire | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 10 | True Boots | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Focused | 4.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 9 | Celsius | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Silver Soiree | 10.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 8 | Lifefullofreinbows | 3.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 7 | Good Wishes | 8.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 6 | Sierra Forest | 15.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 10 | 11 | Zemo | 30.00 | 11 | 21-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Anna Kate | 15.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Mrs Rocco | 1.80 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | La Dama | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | My Peeps | 3.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Bella Kristina | 30.00 | 5 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 3 | D’ Cat | 5.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Lullingstone | 3.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lady Rubi | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Thegreatgeneration | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Laughing Levi | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Beat Goes On | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Vilonia Strong | 30.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Louisiana Brown | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | How’s My Bud | 3.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Distorted Ransom | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Missle Bomb | 2.50 | 7.8 | 15-1 | Scr |
| 13 | 11 | Midnight Yell | 15.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Big John Striker | 12.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Crenshaw | 12.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Southern Cross | 20.00 | 12 | 23-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Prince of Shobiz | 15.00 | 12.5 | 24-1 | Scr |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.