September 4, 2017 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Mind Bottling | 15.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sand Dancer | 12.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Pete Marwick | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Marzo | 2.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Egyptian Prince | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Enticed | 3.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Dirty | 3.50 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Can Go | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 5 | Baseline | 12.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Muhaawer | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 15 | 8 | Escape Velocity | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 2 | Rollin Smoke | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Cuckoo’s Saloon | 30.00 | 5 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 1 | Itsabigboy | 4.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Son of Oahu | 6.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 10 | Carbon Data | 3.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 4 | Sutter’s Mill | 20.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 14 | 7 | Bunyaan | 15.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Eucalyptus | 15.00 | 11 | 21-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 9 | There Goes Ben | 12.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 3 | Unexplained | 8.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | You Like That | 20.00 | 13.8 | 26-1 | Scr |
| 12 | 6 | Independent Worker | 30.00 | 15 | 28-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | No Hiding Place | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ifyousnoozeyoulose | 12.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Drover Crazy | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 3 | Evolution | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Sir Bond | 2.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Driving Me Crazy | 1.60 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Cursor | 3.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 3 | Miss Wilby | 10.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Kelsocait | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Your Love | 1.40 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Myfourchix | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 1 | Ring Knocker | 4.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Chorus Line | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Wild and Funny | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 5 | Secretsof the Nile | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | Scr |
| 15 | 5 | My Bronx Tail | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Rushing Fall | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 | Scr |
| 14 | 4 | Lady by Choice | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Night Owl | 5.00 | 7 | 13-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 1 | Critique | 4.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Tropical Wave | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | Scr |
| 11 | 11 | Cyrielle | 6.00 | 9 | 17-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 2 | Kickin Kimberly | 20.00 | 11 | 21-1 | |
| 13 | 3 | Sureis | 15.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Fairy Link | 20.00 | 12.8 | 24-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Coffee Crush | 12.00 | 13 | 25-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 2 | Jody’s Song | 15.00 | 13 | 25-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 6 | Daddy Is a Legend | 6.00 | 13.3 | 25-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Impact Player | 3.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | He’s Bankable | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Engage | 1.60 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Home Run Maker | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Call the Cat | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Wellwest | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Kilroy Was Here | 8.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Regalian | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Bet It All to Win | 15.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Bernard Baruch H.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Delta Prince | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | American Patriot | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 5 | Forge (GB) | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Heart to Heart | 2.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Highland Sky | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 2 | Takeover Target | 5.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Projected (GB) | 3.50 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Ring Weekend | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Glorious Empire (IRE) | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 8 | B Rockett | 12.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Driven by Speed | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Tizzelle | 4.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Free N Clear | 30.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Flattermefabulous | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Style Drift | 5.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Bareeqa | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Iron Mizz | 8.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Jcs American Dream | 2.50 | 8.5 | 16-1 | Scr |
| 13 | 13 | Legally Bay | 6.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 5 | Rockin Alli | 30.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 10 | Barrier to Entry | 6.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 6 | Lady Joan | 8.00 | 12.5 | 24-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Belle of the Spa | 15.00 | 12.5 | 24-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Hopeful S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Free Drop Billy | 4.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Sporting Chance | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mojovation | 2.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Psychoanalyze | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Givemeaminit | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | National Flag | 4.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Firenze Fire | 3.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Oskar Blues | 10.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | Objective Complete | 4.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 6 | Nothingbutasmile | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 6 | Something Joyful | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | Scr |
| 14 | 7 | Sandy Belle | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Lulu’s Pom Pom | 3.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 11 | 6 | Live That Fantasy | 30.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Andretta | 3.50 | 7.3 | 14-1 | Scr |
| 15 | 8 | Grandpa’s Arianna | 6.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Justenuff Hope | 20.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Connie A | 5.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Selling Stones | 20.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Toni the Tigress | 30.00 | 11.8 | 22-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 4 | It Ain’t Easy | 8.00 | 12 | 23-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Amanda Lane | 6.00 | 13 | 25-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Elegant Jem | 15.00 | 13.3 | 25-1 | Scr |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.