August 16, 2017 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Mutasaawy | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Any Given Royal | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Bishop’s Castle | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Buck Benny | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Meteoroid | 4.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Kremlin | 4.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Aflutter | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Hooded | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Spieth | 1.80 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Tarpon Bay Road | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | D’ambrosio | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Powerful Ally | 4.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Alpha Team | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Zeppelin Ride | 20.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Fireball Shot | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Muqtaser | 0.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 3A | 3 | Street Fashion | 0.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 2A | 2 | Holiday Star | 0.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Fire Away | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 2 | Backsideofthemoon | 1.60 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Mark My Style | 2.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1A | 1 | Lady Devil | 1.80 | 1 | 2-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 4 | Lady Constance | 8.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 4 | B Three | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Put On a Show | 0.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Rainy Night | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Jump for Joy | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Askfor Forgiveness | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 3A | 3 | Easy Way Out | 0.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Double Mane | 30.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Joe’s Smokin Gun | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | My Mr. Wonderful | 20.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 9A | 9 | Lake Party | 0.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Barbarossa | 4.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 3 | Stolen Pistol | 2.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 16A | 16 | Mr. Hot Rocks | 0.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Cross Multiply | 6.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 8 | Sicilia Sal | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Conforto | 6.00 | 7.1 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Fun Prospect | 3.50 | 7.7 | 15-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 6 | Nolinski | 15.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Engineers Report | 8.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 1 | Burkie | 12.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Ten Eyck | 8.00 | 10.9 | 21-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Just Bustin | 12.00 | 12.1 | 23-1 | Scr |
| 15 | 15 | Suremoney | 30.00 | 12.3 | 23-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Helooksthepart | 4.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Saratoga Wildcat | 0.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5A | 5 | Power Nap | 0.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1A | 5 | Full Salute | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Old Upstart | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Paden | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 8 | Rockford | 2.50 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 7 | Morning Buzz | 5.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4A | 4 | Vici | 0.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Zoot Suit | 0.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 8 | End Play | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 6 | Amelia’s Wild Ride | 15.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Fear | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1A | 4 | Commend | 0.80 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 7 | Expected Ruler | 4.50 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Uncle Youdge | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Crafty Concorde | 12.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Damage Control | 2.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mobridge | 1.80 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Ex Ex Ex | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Rooftop View | 20.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Irish Prayer | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Benny Big Boy | 30.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 2 | No Texting | 4.50 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Bolton Landing S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Fairyland | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Sly Beauty | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mentality | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 7 | Buy Sell Hold | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Sugar Queen | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | March X Press | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Madame X. | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Life Time Citizen | 12.00 | 7.1 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Borsa Vento | 3.50 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Presidential Bird | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Britain | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Irst | 2.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Giant Brownie | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Schott | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Archival | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Headliner | 20.00 | 7.1 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Dublin Express | 30.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.