August 12, 2017 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Scarly Charly | 2.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sir Bond | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Nominal Dollars | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Will Did It | 4.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | At Guard | 3.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Set the Trappe | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Sammy Wonder Stone | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Base Command | 3.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Get the Facts | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Indimaaj | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Bravazo | 15.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Airtouch | 2.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Oskar Blues | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Not Fake News | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Fixedincome Larry | 4.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Everado | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Six Schillings | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Space Mountain | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Killybegs Captain | 2.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 4 | Dr. Edgar | 4.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Rapid Red | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Driven by Thunder | 2.50 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Romans Paradise | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Pioneer Spirit | 5.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Scatoga | 30.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Stakes) – Adirondack S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Sly Roxy | 2.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Limited View | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Di Maria | 20.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Pure Silver | 2.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Proportionality | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Stainless | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Southampton Way | 5.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Wall of Compassion | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Ghurair | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Blarp | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Made in Detroit | 5.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Sportscaster | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 6 | Slim Shadey (GB) | 4.50 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Azar | 3.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Old Upstart | 3.00 | 7.1 | 14-1 | Scr |
| 16 | 16 | Rich Daddy | 2.50 | 7.8 | 15-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 10 | Italian Charm | 6.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | McIlroy | 12.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Midnight Notes | 20.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Sunset District | 20.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Bow Tie Affair | 20.00 | 10.7 | 20-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Husband’s Folly | 30.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Paid Admission | 3.50 | 12.1 | 23-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 2 | On Tap | 20.00 | 12.4 | 23-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Double Bourbon | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Machtree | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Lago Gris | 10.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Variant Perception | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | Scr |
| 13 | 13 | Pete Marwick | 20.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | Scr |
| 16 | 16 | Super Sermon | 2.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 4 | Lone Sentry | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Have At It | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Schliffy | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Channel Cat | 3.50 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Make It Work | 15.00 | 7.1 | 14-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Honey Dont | 15.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Sportswear (GB) | 2.50 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Cullum Road | 12.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | Scr |
| 14 | 14 | The Best Candy | 30.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 5 | Tejas Ranger (IRE) | 20.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Roaming Union | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Wyatt’s Town | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Song of the Nile | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | My Chinumado | 30.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Infield Is In | 30.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Coltandmississippi | 2.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Lone Sailor | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Coal Truth | 2.50 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Can Go | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Puca | 5.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Off Limits (IRE) | 1.60 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Rachel’s Temper | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 2 | Somethingelse | 4.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Promotional | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Enchanteresse (IRE) | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | All in Fun | 3.50 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Shake Down Baby | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 4 | Cerro (IRE) | 6.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 2 | Lewys Vaporizer | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Canadian Flyer | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 8 | Still Krz | 3.00 | 5 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Gift Box | 1.80 | 5.3 | 10-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 5 | Icatiro | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Spartiatis | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 1 | Fifth Title | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | Hey Jabber Jaw | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Brimstone | 10.00 | 8 | 15-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Fourstardave H.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Weekend Hideaway | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 5 | Disco Partner | 2.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | World Approval | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Time Test (GB) | 1.60 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | American Patriot | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ballagh Rocks | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Sassy Little Lila | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Danny’s Rush | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 5 | Dab | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | The Pooch | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Shades of Brown | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 4 | Great Blake | 6.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 15 | 15 | Quai Voltaire | 4.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Atwitzend | 8.00 | 7.1 | 14-1 | Scr |
| 13 | 13 | Tiz Wicked | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | Scr |
| 12 | 7 | Mr. Cat | 4.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 6 | Source Control | 8.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Grand Valour | 8.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Leatherhead Lurie | 50.00 | 11.4 | 22-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 9 | Galway Girl | 50.00 | 11.6 | 22-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 3 | Frost Proof | 20.00 | 11.7 | 22-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | For Pops | 20.00 | 13.6 | 26-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.