August 12, 2017 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Just Blaze | 4.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 5 | Call to Arms | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Im the Best I Know | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | P R Radio Star | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Magic Musketier | 10.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Richiesonarampage | 4.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Take Charge Dude | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Our Thomas | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Singingintheheat | 12.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 4 | Good Bye Greg | 1.20 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Cash Bonus | 10.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 1 | Western Elegance | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Reigning Catfish | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Hunka Burning Love | 4.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Rivzinthehouse | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Bordini | 15.00 | 7.1 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Triple Chelsea | 3.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Seeking Treasure | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | One Liz | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Daddy’s Boo | 2.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Stormin Elle | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Princess Erindelle | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 6 | America Mon Amie | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Dona Spey | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mongolian Greywolf | 30.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 4 | Kitten’s Solution | 3.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Savage Battle | 4.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Don’task Don’ttell | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | American Deluxe | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | One Last Strike | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Conquest Falcon | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Bruise | 15.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Mummy Troll | 30.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Side Pocket | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Tiree | 12.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Profluent | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Saturdayatbernies | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Francois | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mean Intentions | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Electrifying | 5.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Flying Mr K. | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Kyzan | 10.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Limestone | 12.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Smiling Gambler | 20.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Straight Up Smarty | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Quinta Verde (IRE) | 3.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Something Kinky | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Dreamofjean E. | 3.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Gentle Kitten | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | You’re Welcome | 30.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Love On Tides | 6.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Meadow Mystique | 20.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 5 | She’sadowntowngirl | 30.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Sark Lady | 15.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | Scr |
| 11 | 10 | Miss Curlin | 30.00 | 11.4 | 22-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Secretariat S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Oscar Performance | 1.60 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sonic Boom | 8.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Gorgeous Kitten | 12.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Permian (IRE) | 1.80 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Afandem (FR) | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Taj Mahal (IRE) | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Bruce D. Memorial S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 6 | Uncontested | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Smoke ‘n’ Gloat | 4.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Yorkton | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Kitten’s Cat | 3.50 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Society Beau | 6.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Gain Ground | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Justice Prevails | 30.00 | 7 | 13-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Mongolian Greywolf | 30.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 1 | Harmac | 12.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Memory Bank | 12.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – American St. Leger S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Taghleeb | 2.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Applicator | 4.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Bullards Alley | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Postulation | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Keystoneforvictory | 2.50 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Crewman | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Alpha Warrior | 30.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Tobias | 30.00 | 7.1 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Beverly D. S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Dona Bruja (ARG) | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dacita (CHI) | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Rainha Da Bateria | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Kitten’s Roar | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Zipessa | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Prado’s Sweet Ride | 30.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Hawksmoor (IRE) | 4.50 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Rain Goddess (IRE) | 5.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Grand Jete (GB) | 6.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Sarandia (GER) | 30.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Stakes) – Arlington Million Xxxv S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Deauville (IRE) | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Kasaqui (ARG) | 10.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Beach Patrol | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Divisidero | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Oak Brook | 30.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | The Pizza Man | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Ghost Hunter | 30.00 | 7.1 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Enterprising | 30.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Oscar Nominated | 15.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Ascend | 10.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Mekhtaal (GB) | 4.50 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Scottish (IRE) | 8.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 6 | Fanciful Angel (IRE) | 30.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 |
RACE NUMBER 12 (Stakes) – Pucker Up S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Journey Home | 4.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Lovely Bernadette | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Happy Mesa | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Sensitive | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Dontmesswithjoanne | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Fault | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Canny | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Royalty Princess | 30.00 | 7.1 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Katinka | 30.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Mo’s M V P | 30.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Princess La Quinta | 20.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lipstick City | 4.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.