August 5, 2017 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
Prgm |
Post |
Name |
ML |
Expected |
Value |
Scr |
5 |
4 |
Sandy’z Slew |
8.00 |
3.3 |
6-1 |
|
9 |
9 |
Uncle Youdge |
2.50 |
4 |
8-1 |
Scr |
13 |
13 |
Love That Jazz |
3.00 |
4.3 |
8-1 |
Scr |
7 |
7 |
Frisky Magician |
4.00 |
4.4 |
8-1 |
Scr |
14B |
14 |
Marriedtothemusic |
0.00 |
5.1 |
10-1 |
|
8 |
6 |
Nobody Move |
10.00 |
6.9 |
13-1 |
|
2A |
2 |
With Exultation |
0.00 |
7.7 |
15-1 |
|
6 |
5 |
Fratello Del Nord |
3.00 |
8 |
15-1 |
|
10 |
10 |
D’ Eloquent |
5.00 |
8.1 |
15-1 |
Scr |
4 |
3 |
Dr. Shane |
8.00 |
8.3 |
16-1 |
|
12B |
12 |
Grand Sky |
0.00 |
8.6 |
16-1 |
|
15A |
15 |
Mighty Zealous |
0.00 |
9 |
17-1 |
|
3 |
1 |
Excluded |
15.00 |
10 |
19-1 |
|
11 |
7 |
Irish Prayer |
5.00 |
12.3 |
23-1 |
|
1 |
2 |
The Crocheron Kid |
15.00 |
12.3 |
23-1 |
|
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
Prgm |
Post |
Name |
ML |
Expected |
Value |
Scr |
1 |
2 |
Total Cooperation |
3.50 |
1.6 |
3-1 |
|
6 |
6 |
Behavioral Bias |
6.00 |
2.3 |
4-1 |
|
8A |
8 |
Greek Alphabet |
0.00 |
3.4 |
6-1 |
|
9 |
9 |
Ride On Faith |
0.00 |
3.9 |
7-1 |
|
4 |
4 |
Zap Zap Zap |
2.50 |
4 |
8-1 |
|
2A |
2 |
Fully Vested |
0.00 |
5.1 |
10-1 |
|
3 |
3 |
Eight Town |
5.00 |
5.1 |
10-1 |
|
5 |
5 |
Swayze |
12.00 |
6.3 |
12-1 |
|
7 |
7 |
Mono |
12.00 |
7.3 |
14-1 |
|
RACE NUMBER 3 (Stakes) – Fasig-tipton Waya S.
Expected Order of Finish
Prgm |
Post |
Name |
ML |
Expected |
Value |
Scr |
4 |
3 |
Suffused (GB) |
1.40 |
2.7 |
5-1 |
|
7 |
6 |
Summersault |
3.50 |
3 |
6-1 |
|
1 |
1 |
Apple Betty (IRE) |
3.00 |
4.1 |
8-1 |
|
8 |
7 |
Guilty Twelve |
5.00 |
4.4 |
8-1 |
|
2 |
2 |
Estrechada (ARG) |
6.00 |
4.6 |
9-1 |
|
3 |
3 |
Gone Away |
8.00 |
4.9 |
9-1 |
Scr |
5 |
4 |
Lottie |
8.00 |
6 |
11-1 |
|
6 |
5 |
Evidently |
30.00 |
6.3 |
12-1 |
|
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
Prgm |
Post |
Name |
ML |
Expected |
Value |
Scr |
3A |
3 |
Roaming Union |
0.00 |
1.3 |
2-1 |
|
13A |
13 |
Lago Gris |
0.00 |
3.4 |
6-1 |
|
2 |
1 |
Monteleone |
6.00 |
3.9 |
7-1 |
|
6 |
5 |
Eclipsed Moon |
5.00 |
4 |
8-1 |
|
11 |
10 |
He Takes Charge |
6.00 |
4.4 |
8-1 |
|
15 |
15 |
Indimaaj |
2.50 |
5.3 |
10-1 |
Scr |
5 |
4 |
Strong Current |
6.00 |
5.9 |
11-1 |
|
12 |
12 |
Lone Sentry |
8.00 |
6 |
11-1 |
Scr |
14 |
14 |
Variant Perception |
4.00 |
6.3 |
12-1 |
Scr |
16 |
16 |
Super Sermon |
0.00 |
6.4 |
12-1 |
|
4 |
3 |
Neepawa |
10.00 |
7.1 |
14-1 |
|
10 |
9 |
Survey (IRE) |
6.00 |
8.4 |
16-1 |
|
8 |
7 |
Seabhac |
4.00 |
8.6 |
16-1 |
|
9 |
8 |
Sidewinder |
20.00 |
9.6 |
18-1 |
|
1 |
1 |
Trumpi |
10.00 |
10 |
19-1 |
Scr |
7 |
6 |
Irish Territory (IRE) |
12.00 |
10.7 |
20-1 |
|
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
Prgm |
Post |
Name |
ML |
Expected |
Value |
Scr |
15 |
15 |
Cerro (IRE) |
3.00 |
1.7 |
3-1 |
Scr |
5 |
5 |
Delta Prince |
2.50 |
2.9 |
5-1 |
|
11 |
11 |
Mutazen |
3.50 |
5.3 |
10-1 |
|
13 |
13 |
Gift Box |
1.60 |
6.1 |
12-1 |
Scr |
14 |
14 |
Raagheb |
4.50 |
6.3 |
12-1 |
Scr |
16 |
16 |
Carve |
6.00 |
7 |
13-1 |
Scr |
3 |
3 |
Altar Boy |
10.00 |
7.4 |
14-1 |
|
7 |
7 |
Whatawonderflworld |
5.00 |
8.6 |
16-1 |
|
4 |
4 |
Knights Key |
30.00 |
10.4 |
20-1 |
|
6 |
6 |
Toughest ‘Ombre |
15.00 |
10.4 |
20-1 |
|
1 |
1 |
Mighty Mo |
8.00 |
11 |
21-1 |
|
12 |
12 |
Wicked Freud |
20.00 |
11.1 |
21-1 |
|
2 |
2 |
Alphonsus (GB) |
10.00 |
11.6 |
22-1 |
|
8 |
8 |
Strike Midnight |
12.00 |
11.9 |
22-1 |
|
10 |
10 |
Vulcan’s Forge |
15.00 |
12 |
23-1 |
|
9 |
9 |
Derby Champagne |
20.00 |
12.3 |
23-1 |
|
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
Prgm |
Post |
Name |
ML |
Expected |
Value |
Scr |
9 |
7 |
Arrival |
5.00 |
1.9 |
4-1 |
|
2 |
2 |
Ceevee |
5.00 |
2.6 |
5-1 |
|
4 |
3 |
Engage |
3.50 |
3 |
6-1 |
|
11 |
9 |
National Flag |
2.00 |
3.1 |
6-1 |
|
10 |
8 |
Mad Munnys |
3.00 |
3.3 |
6-1 |
|
3 |
3 |
Tap Master |
10.00 |
5.3 |
10-1 |
Scr |
7 |
5 |
Nanoosh |
20.00 |
5.4 |
10-1 |
|
6 |
4 |
Nightstrings |
15.00 |
6 |
11-1 |
|
8 |
6 |
Slot |
5.00 |
6.3 |
12-1 |
|
5 |
5 |
Rahfee Town |
20.00 |
6.6 |
12-1 |
Scr |
1 |
1 |
Thunder’s Honor |
12.00 |
7.1 |
14-1 |
|
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Fasig-tipton Lure S.
Expected Order of Finish
Prgm |
Post |
Name |
ML |
Expected |
Value |
Scr |
13 |
13 |
Red Rifle |
5.00 |
2.7 |
5-1 |
Scr |
9 |
9 |
Mohaymen |
3.00 |
3.3 |
6-1 |
Scr |
8 |
7 |
Ring Weekend |
6.00 |
4.6 |
9-1 |
|
12 |
10 |
Macagone |
10.00 |
5 |
9-1 |
|
4 |
4 |
Our Way |
12.00 |
5.6 |
11-1 |
|
7 |
6 |
Blacktype (FR) |
8.00 |
6.9 |
13-1 |
|
5 |
5 |
Vorticity |
30.00 |
7.4 |
14-1 |
Scr |
10 |
8 |
Fire Away |
15.00 |
7.6 |
14-1 |
|
1 |
1 |
Projected (GB) |
1.80 |
8.3 |
16-1 |
|
2 |
2 |
Takeover Target |
8.00 |
8.3 |
16-1 |
|
11 |
9 |
Camelot Kitten |
4.50 |
8.6 |
16-1 |
|
3 |
3 |
Zennor |
15.00 |
10 |
19-1 |
|
6 |
5 |
Aubenas (FR) |
15.00 |
12.4 |
23-1 |
|
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Longines Test S.
Expected Order of Finish
Prgm |
Post |
Name |
ML |
Expected |
Value |
Scr |
8 |
8 |
Faypien |
3.00 |
1.6 |
3-1 |
|
1 |
1 |
Minnie Blip |
15.00 |
4.3 |
8-1 |
|
10 |
10 |
American Gal |
2.50 |
4.4 |
8-1 |
|
3 |
3 |
Chalon |
5.00 |
5.6 |
11-1 |
|
7 |
7 |
Divine Miss Grey |
12.00 |
6 |
11-1 |
|
9 |
9 |
Chanel’s Legacy |
15.00 |
6.3 |
12-1 |
|
5 |
5 |
Vertical Oak |
8.00 |
6.3 |
12-1 |
|
6 |
6 |
Cursor |
30.00 |
6.6 |
12-1 |
|
4 |
4 |
Tequilita |
15.00 |
7 |
13-1 |
|
2 |
2 |
Your Love |
6.00 |
7 |
13-1 |
|
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Whitney S.
Expected Order of Finish
Prgm |
Post |
Name |
ML |
Expected |
Value |
Scr |
2 |
2 |
Breaking Lucky |
8.00 |
2 |
4-1 |
|
6 |
6 |
Gun Runner |
0.80 |
2.3 |
4-1 |
|
3 |
3 |
Cautious Giant |
30.00 |
4 |
8-1 |
|
5 |
5 |
Keen Ice |
3.00 |
4.1 |
8-1 |
|
1 |
1 |
War Story |
6.00 |
4.3 |
8-1 |
|
7 |
7 |
Discreet Lover |
25.00 |
5.1 |
10-1 |
|
4 |
4 |
Tu Brutus (CHI) |
8.00 |
6.1 |
12-1 |
|
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Fasig-tipton De La Rose S.
Expected Order of Finish
Prgm |
Post |
Name |
ML |
Expected |
Value |
Scr |
8 |
4 |
Bar of Gold |
10.00 |
1.7 |
3-1 |
|
10 |
6 |
Elysea’s World (IRE) |
5.00 |
3.6 |
7-1 |
|
4 |
4 |
Puca |
12.00 |
4.4 |
8-1 |
Scr |
2 |
2 |
Sassy Little Lila |
2.50 |
4.9 |
9-1 |
Scr |
11 |
7 |
Light In Paris (IRE) |
8.00 |
5 |
9-1 |
|
13 |
13 |
Clipthecouponannie |
4.00 |
6 |
11-1 |
Scr |
12 |
8 |
Proper Discretion |
30.00 |
6.6 |
12-1 |
|
9 |
5 |
Sky My Sky |
12.00 |
7.1 |
14-1 |
|
7 |
3 |
On Leave |
3.00 |
8 |
15-1 |
|
3 |
3 |
Freudie Anne |
15.00 |
9.9 |
19-1 |
Scr |
1 |
1 |
Thundering Sky |
15.00 |
10 |
19-1 |
|
5 |
5 |
Boreale |
20.00 |
11.4 |
22-1 |
Scr |
6 |
2 |
Laur Net |
30.00 |
12.4 |
23-1 |
|
RACE NUMBER 11 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
Prgm |
Post |
Name |
ML |
Expected |
Value |
Scr |
7 |
7 |
Neolithic |
1.00 |
1.4 |
3-1 |
|
8 |
8 |
Schivarelli |
6.00 |
3 |
6-1 |
|
1 |
1 |
Bolita Boyz |
15.00 |
3.3 |
6-1 |
|
3 |
3 |
Realm |
8.00 |
3.6 |
7-1 |
|
2 |
2 |
Brerry |
30.00 |
5.7 |
11-1 |
|
10 |
9 |
Candy Promises |
12.00 |
6.4 |
12-1 |
|
5 |
5 |
Warrior’s Club |
20.00 |
7.3 |
14-1 |
|
6 |
6 |
Mo Town |
4.50 |
7.6 |
14-1 |
|
9 |
9 |
Luna de Loco |
15.00 |
8.3 |
16-1 |
Scr |
4 |
4 |
Always a Suspect |
12.00 |
8.4 |
16-1 |
|
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.