July 31, 2017 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | True Charm | 8.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Battlement (GB) | 1.60 | 2.7 | 5-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 3 | Miss Kentucky | 2.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bigkat and Camille | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | First Charmer | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Pray for Bourbon | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 8 | Peace Speaker | 2.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Now in a Drive | 2.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Makeamericagreat | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Tarpon Bay Road | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 5 | Oiseau de Guerre | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Itsabigboy | 5.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 2 | Risky Town | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Funtastic | 4.50 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mohican | 10.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Unforeseeable | 20.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Moana | 1.20 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Blenheim Palace | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Posse Needed | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Smile Big | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Stay Fond | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Joopster | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Shane’s Jewel | 5.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Nothings Changed | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Day of Reckoning | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Tom’s Music | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | The Berber | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Factor This | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Duncastle | 4.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 2 | Nate Can’t Wait | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Buss the Bell | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Shadow Rock | 2.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tale of E Dubai | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Ray’swarrior | 2.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | No Hiding Place | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Padilla | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Starship Wildcat | 4.50 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Aktabantay (GB) | 3.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Full Salute | 10.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Street Shark | 20.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Francis Freud | 20.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Carmenere | 10.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Believe Indeed | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Merilore | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Flick of an Eye | 4.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Charming Clare | 4.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 | Scr |
| 15 | 15 | Just Got Out | 3.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 8 | My Good Venezuela | 3.50 | 7.1 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Morethanawarning | 8.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Frosty Lady | 8.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Storm Petrel | 15.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Graceful Gal | 20.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Madame Barbarian | 20.00 | 11 | 21-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Tiz Twice | 20.00 | 12.1 | 23-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 1 | Indygita | 15.00 | 12.6 | 24-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Perina’s Pride | 30.00 | 14.1 | 27-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Minsky Moment | 1.20 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Winston’s Chance | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Blame the Thief | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Royal Ekati | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Third Son | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Honorable Jonas | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Coronation Cup S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Morticia | 2.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Lady Alexandra | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | India Mantuana | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | No More Babies | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Epping Forest | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Let It Ride Mom | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Hidden Mystery | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Heavenly Score | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Yorkiepoo Princess | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Dab | 3.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Saratoga Colonel | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Fullback Foye | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Martino | 4.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Souper Colors | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 16 | 14 | Brooklyn Major | 5.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | That Mr. P | 30.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | The Podiatrist | 12.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Lake Surprise | 10.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | Scr |
| 15 | 13 | Nut Nut | 3.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Seasall | 30.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | I Miss My Father | 10.00 | 10.7 | 20-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Skeet Shot | 15.00 | 11.1 | 21-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Run for Boston | 12.00 | 11.4 | 22-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Doublins Double | 30.00 | 12.1 | 23-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Little Monster Boy | 30.00 | 12.9 | 24-1 | Scr |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.