July 29, 2017 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Mojovation | 1.80 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bourbon Resolution | 2.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lionite | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Kentucky Club | 15.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Country Squire | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Hoard | 20.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Thunder Mesa | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 9 | Master Merion | 12.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Hieroglyphics | 2.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 1 | Pagliacci | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 6A | 6 | Rollin Smoke | 0.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Hembree | 0.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Benefactor | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Casses Story | 5.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Capitaine | 3.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Painter’s Rags | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Junket | 10.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 5A | 5 | Perro Rojo | 0.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 4 | Surprise Twist | 12.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Kirby’s Penny | 1.60 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Pico Chick | 2.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Kentucky Dancer | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Arewehavingfunyet | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Murrell’s Belle | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Okbyecya | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Paluxy Princess | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Johnny Ray | 10.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bow Ready | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ultima D | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Midnight Tea Time | 10.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Beta Max | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Chirping | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Triangulate | 3.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Majestic Dunhill | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | El Dulce | 2.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Thunder’s Honor | 4.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Stakes) – Amsterdam S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Mo Cash | 2.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Excitations | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Aquamarine | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Toga Challenger | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Coal Front | 1.40 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Singing Bullet | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Spring Up | 4.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Tasit | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Gio’s Calling | 3.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 6A | 6 | Altar Boy | 0.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Call Provision | 2.50 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Nessy | 6.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | War Stroll | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tathqeef | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 3 | Revved Up | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 11A | 11 | St. Louie | 0.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Soluble (GER) | 30.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Mom’s On Strike | 6.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Ack Naughty | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Vagabond | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Just Got Out | 3.50 | 5.9 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 11 | 10 | Awesome Song | 6.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Crimson Frost | 5.00 | 7 | 13-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 6 | Dreamofjean E. | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 5 | La Sola Ranger | 12.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Truth | 10.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Broken Border | 8.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Affileo (GB) | 15.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Bright Side Up | 30.00 | 10.9 | 21-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Peaches and Spice | 50.00 | 12.7 | 24-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Party Nights (GB) | 20.00 | 12.9 | 24-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Alfred G. Vanderbilt H.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | El Deal | 3.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Limousine Liberal | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | A. P. Indian | 2.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 4 | Bird Song | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Awesome Banner | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Green Gratto | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Ready for Rye | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Spartiatis | 20.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Bowling Green S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Frank Conversation | 6.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bigger Picture | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Ascend | 1.60 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Closing Bell | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Sadler’s Joy | 3.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Hunter O’Riley | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Hello Don Julio | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Jim Dandy S. Presented By Nyra Bets
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Pavel | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cloud Computing | 1.20 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Giuseppe the Great | 10.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Always Dreaming | 1.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Good Samaritan | 12.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Wake Island | 4.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Magical Sky | 8.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Durable Goods | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Mini Pearl | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Fashion Week | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Elude | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Freedom | 5.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Miss Maker | 10.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Remarqued | 8.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Length | 12.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Red Curls | 30.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.