July 28, 2017 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Missy Mouse | 4.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Madam Aamoura | 2.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Big Mara | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Mary Pray for Us | 2.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Navajo Kitten | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 5 | Two Term Max | 6.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Sweetneida | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Professor Snape | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 2 | Dark as Midnight | 8.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Here and There | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Right Ben | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Lightning Buzz | 3.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Noneedtoflatterme | 4.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Kerry Boy | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Bold Illusion | 30.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | The Orphan Miracle | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Red Dane (ITY) | 8.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Dovecote | 2.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Double Cast | 3.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Subic Bay | 8.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bodie’s Valentine | 4.50 | 6.3 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 12 | 12 | Presumptuous | 3.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 7 | Angels Seven (IRE) | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Soar Once More | 10.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Swizzle | 12.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Auntie Mary | 20.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | Scr |
| 13 | 13 | Broad Stripes | 5.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 3 | Discreet Power | 15.00 | 10.7 | 20-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Fast Mama | 10.00 | 11.1 | 21-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Brilliant Missy | 4.00 | 12.1 | 23-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6B | 6 | Pablo Del Monte | 0.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Jeter | 12.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 2B | 2 | Do Not Enter | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 10 | War Eagle’s Return | 0.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Waco | 0.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 1A | 1 | Draxhall Woods | 3.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 8 | Gambler’s Ghost | 20.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Will Did It | 4.50 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 7A | 7 | Set the Trappe | 0.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Roll Tide Roll | 10.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Driving Me Crazy | 12.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7A | 7 | Looking Ready | 0.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Big Gemmy | 8.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Rockin Jo | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Smokin Platinum | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Aveenu Malcainu | 4.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 13A | 13 | Mr. Hot Rocks | 0.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Conforto | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 7 | Five Star Bunt | 2.50 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Valmont | 3.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Perfectexpectation | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 4 | Sir Frost | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Lover’s Leap | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 9 | Flat Out Jayvien | 30.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Rimanisempreforte | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Flattermefabulous | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Magician’s Vanity | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Cinder | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Queenofthechannel | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 13 | 13 | Milaya | 8.00 | 7.1 | 14-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 5 | Regal Roma | 10.00 | 7.1 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Marnesia Big Girl | 5.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Baronet | 15.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Andesine | 10.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mizz Tutu | 20.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Ten Penny Princess | 8.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Forever for Always | 30.00 | 11 | 21-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Sugar Mags | 15.00 | 11.9 | 22-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Shaft of Light | 0.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 4 | Tale of S’avall | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Threefiveindia | 15.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 4A | 4 | Clear the Mine | 0.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | All Star Red | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 8A | 8 | Lex Vegas | 0.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Tale of Life (JPN) | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 9 | Economic Model | 2.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Icatiro | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Jan’s Reserve | 20.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Memories of Peter | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Gauguin (GER) | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Rocketry | 2.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Starship Zeus | 4.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 8 | Musical America | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Holiday Bonus | 10.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | Scr |
| 12 | 12 | Dogtown | 3.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 6 | Harlan Strong (ARG) | 15.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | Scr |
| 11 | 9 | River of Dreams | 12.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Arch Contender | 30.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Our Cousin Dick | 15.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Shamsaan | 10.00 | 10.6 | 20-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Rapt | 8.00 | 11.1 | 21-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Curlin S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | You’re to Blame | 3.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Outplay | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Perfect Partner | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Thirst for Victory | 4.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Hemsworth | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Small Bear | 5.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Everybodyluvsrudy | 6.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Sicilia Mike | 4.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Dab | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 8 | Brooklyn Speights | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 13 | 11 | Digitaldestruction | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Money Laundering | 5.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Shades of Brown | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 12 | 10 | Tiz Wicked | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Colonel Andy | 6.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Atwitzend | 6.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
| 15 | 12 | With the Tide | 20.00 | 10.6 | 20-1 | |
| 16 | 16 | Mr. Cat | 4.50 | 11 | 21-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 7 | Toast to Ghost | 8.00 | 11.6 | 22-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mount Upton | 12.00 | 11.9 | 22-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Leatherhead Lurie | 30.00 | 12 | 23-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | U Rock It | 20.00 | 12.1 | 23-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Victory’s Cash | 30.00 | 15.1 | 29-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.