July 27, 2017 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Stakes) – A. P. Smithwick Memorial Steeplechase H.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 0 | Mr. Hot Stuff | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 5 | Portrade (IRE) | 4.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Diplomat | 12.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Modem (GB) | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Charminster (IRE) | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Andi’amu (FR) | 20.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Swansea Mile (IRE) | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Schoodic | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Simenon (IRE) | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | All the Way Jose | 10.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Balance the Budget | 12.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Fortunate Queen | 3.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 0 | Home Again | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 6 | Regina George | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Bixby Lou | 2.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Marie Joelle | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Annapolis Class | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tarquinia | 4.50 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Miss Pearl | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0 | Aife | 4.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 0 | Silver Shaker | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 3 | Foreign Affair | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Jonquil | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 0 | Factoring | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Maddy’s Way | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Cleo | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 0 | Anothertequilashot | 5.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 0 | Summer Falls (IRE) | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 0 | More Than a Legend | 20.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Swift One | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Saratoga Mischief | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Star Empire (GB) | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 0 | Doolittle Raiders | 20.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 3 | Hard Hitter | 3.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Pirellone | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | At Guard | 2.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | The Hero Within | 8.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 10 | Sly Roxy | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 14 | 0 | Ultima D | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 8 | Gio Game | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Layla Noor | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Talk Softly | 4.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Mermaid of Honor | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 15 | 0 | No Deal | 4.50 | 6.8 | 13-1 | Scr |
| 13 | 0 | Senza Te | 4.00 | 7 | 13-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 0 | Cyrielle | 3.50 | 9 | 17-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 2 | Puttinyouonthenews | 3.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Sweet Offer | 12.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Lyrical Tale | 12.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Indy Union | 8.00 | 12.3 | 23-1 | |
| 5 | 0 | Fairy Link | 20.00 | 14 | 26-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 4 | Reyana Reya Delite | 20.00 | 15 | 28-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1A | 0 | Tricked Up | 2.00 | 2 | 4-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 0 | Swagger Jagger | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 3 | Devine Dental | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 0 | Ray’s The Bar (GB) | 2.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 0 | Tusk | 5.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 0 | Taste for Talent | 4.50 | 6 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 1 | Toohottoevenspeak | 4.50 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 0 | Mighty Mo | 3.50 | 7 | 13-1 | Scr |
| 12 | 6 | Baratti | 5.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Dot Matrix | 15.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 11 | 5 | Rprettyboyfloyd | 12.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
| 8 | 4 | Acoustic | 15.00 | 12 | 23-1 | |
| 10 | 0 | Silent Waters | 20.00 | 13 | 25-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Tom’s d’Etat | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lieutenant Colonel | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Far From Over | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Bellamy Way | 4.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 0 | Splashtastic | 1.80 | 4.8 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 3 | Bodhisattva | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Rocky Policy | 12.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Ava’s Kitten | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Stormy Sky | 15.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Seeking Paradise | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Blip n’ Th Bye | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Ancient Secret | 2.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 0 | Appealing Maggie | 4.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 5 | Blue Bahia | 3.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – John Morrissey S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | Weekend Hideaway | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 5 | Breakin the Fever | 12.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Fish Trappe Road | 15.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 0 | Bustin It | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 0 | Candid Desire | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 11 | 8 | T Loves a Fight | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Celtic Chaos | 6.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Eye Luv Lulu | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Papa Shot | 4.50 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Brimstone | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Gypsum Johnny | 5.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Ostrolenka | 15.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 4 | Romantic Music | 10.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 0 | Tiz a Kitten | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 0 | Fahan Mura | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 0 | Vasilika | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 0 | True Love Is Yare | 3.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 0 | Cashless Society | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 2 | Cincy Belle | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 0 | Courtly Kitty | 15.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 3 | Woundwithhereyes | 12.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 3 | 0 | Chorite | 10.00 | 10 | 19-1 | Scr |
| 12 | 5 | Unbridledadventure | 20.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Owesaycanyousee | 15.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.