July 27, 2017 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Prince Cheval | 1.60 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bel Air Bullet | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Afortable | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Spanish Justice | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Gold Hawk | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Limestone | 5.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 5 | Golden Gift | 12.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Cadet Captain | 1.20 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Prize Native | 30.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 0 | Solar Flair | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Limeshare | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 0 | Cruachan | 4.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 3 | Fatty Langbein | 4.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Case Cracker | 1.40 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hollarforadollar | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Larissa’s Love | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Dandy Rap | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Pinkchampagneonice | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Exquisite Lady | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Exactness | 4.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Tiree | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Plains Warrior | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Kyzan | 2.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Gritty Greeley | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Azeg | 4.50 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Thundergram | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Petal Path | 2.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Ain’t That Funny | 2.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Ice Princess Emily | 12.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Glimmer of Light | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Cuddle Me | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Lakota Lucy | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Revive | 3.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Saturdays Hangover | 5.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | New York Boy | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Our Bruce | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | High On Sugar | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Hide the Evidence | 1.60 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Cryptocontrol | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 0 | Hiparko | 10.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 3 | Trumpified | 30.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0 | Wicked Stride | 10.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 0 | Mr Dewey | 10.00 | 3 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 3 | Intrepid Humor | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 0 | Consequential | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Gain Ground | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Firespike | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Imposing Will | 5.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Fort Ridge | 4.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mongol G | 3.50 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Wild Scat Blue | 30.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 12 | 0 | Carnoustie | 12.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 0 | Hart Hills Road | 20.00 | 11.8 | 22-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 5 | Aim to Tease | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 0 | O No Not U Again | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 13 | 0 | Tiz Samurai | 20.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 0 | Uncle Mo Money | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 0 | Win D Prado | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 2 | Red Butte | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 3 | Summer Disco | 10.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 0 | Stealthy Traveler | 30.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | Scr |
| 12 | 6 | Gray Dude | 2.50 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 4 | Kielbasa | 12.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 3 | 0 | Candy Carlos | 30.00 | 10 | 19-1 | Scr |
| 14 | 0 | Mongolian Holiday | 10.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Enchanted Rambam | 30.00 | 12.5 | 24-1 | |
| 8 | 0 | A Nice Slewish Boy | 12.00 | 13 | 25-1 | Scr |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.