July 23, 2017 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 10 | Kitty Kat Kate | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Our Girl Abby | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | In the Mood | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 5 | Miss Mo Mentum | 4.50 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Orbolution | 4.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Oldfashioned Style | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 6 | Sweet Bye and Bye | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Road of Honor | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Sureis | 6.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | You People | 6.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bird Key | 15.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Queen Courage | 20.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Tiz Shea D | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Scarf It Down | 3.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Aztec Sense | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Top Fortitude | 4.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Fielding Gold | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | We Did | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Monte Man | 5.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Chubby Master | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Shut Your Trappe | 20.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Mr Classical | 1.60 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Uncle Mojo | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Weather Wiz | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Archival | 20.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Street Review | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Fireball Shot | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Powerful Ally | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Northern | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bourne Country | 15.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Phi Beta Express | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Main Road | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Guick | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Driven West | 4.50 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Rapid Red | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Basic Hero | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 6 | Bellows | 10.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Cinderela El Crome | 20.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Thebigfundamental | 2.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Royal Posse | 2.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Doyouknowsomething | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Goats Town | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Turco Bravo (CHI) | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Seeking the Soul | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Fifth Title | 20.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Securitiz | 4.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | My Dinah Lee | 12.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Skyline Drive | 2.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 7 | Prado Vision | 4.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Crimson Frost | 3.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 11 | 11 | B Three | 8.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | War Canoe | 8.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 16 | 16 | Say Cin Cin | 8.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 10 | Cap’s Vow | 10.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Questeq | 12.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Jennifer’s Legacy | 15.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Thrice | 3.50 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Weekend Hottie | 20.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Patience Love | 20.00 | 10.7 | 20-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Short Kakes | 20.00 | 13 | 25-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Paluxy Princess | 4.50 | 13.1 | 25-1 | Scr |
| 12 | 12 | Cha Cha Heels | 4.00 | 13.4 | 25-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2A | 2 | She’s Had Enough | 0.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Honor Way | 3.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Nisha | 3.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 2 | Makealittlelove | 20.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Star Studded | 20.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Luna Rising | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Courtmewithcarats | 5.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Shesmyheartandsoul | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Kissin Cassie | 10.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Summer of Joy | 20.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Tainted Angel | 10.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Gobi | 0.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 9A | 9 | Forres Lily | 0.00 | 11.1 | 21-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Table for Six | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lem Me Dance | 4.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 4 | Alabama Bound | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Tiz a Kitten | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 3 | About That Base | 3.50 | 7.1 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Sweet August Lady | 3.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Verdant Pastures | 4.50 | 7.4 | 14-1 | Scr |
| 13 | 11 | Eighth Commandment | 20.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Puparee | 20.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 16 | 16 | Never Hungover | 12.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 7 | Bree’s Got Heart | 8.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Somerset Sandy | 20.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Silly Numbers | 20.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Votre Coeur | 15.00 | 11.7 | 22-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Hyde Park Express | 30.00 | 14.3 | 27-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 2 | Emiliana’s Hope | 20.00 | 14.7 | 28-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Nite Delite | 6.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Ginger N Rye | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Sunnysammi | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Most Beautiful (GB) | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Miss Katie Mae (IRE) | 3.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Red Lodge | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Spellker | 12.00 | 7.1 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Animal Appeal | 4.50 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Rumble Doll | 12.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Summer House | 2.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 6 | Louisville First | 12.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | More Royalty | 15.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Width | 15.00 | 10.9 | 21-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Coaching Club American Oaks
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Abel Tasman | 1.60 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Salty | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Daddys Lil Darling | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Elate | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Summer Luck | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Berned | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Corporate Queen | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 15 | Likeitlikethat | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 9 | Prognostication | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | River Deep | 4.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 8 | Starstruck Kitten | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 11A | 11 | Chapin | 0.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 16A | 16 | Fastlanefrontman | 0.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Cookie Crisp | 8.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Nile Prince | 30.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Santa Americana | 20.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Holland Road | 6.00 | 9 | 17-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 7 | Pollock | 6.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 1 | 11 | Harlan’s Vador (ARG) | 4.50 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Bold Daddy | 5.00 | 10.9 | 21-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Smarter | 30.00 | 11.9 | 22-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Major Force | 15.00 | 12.1 | 23-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Knight Errant | 30.00 | 12.9 | 24-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.