July 22, 2017 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Mr. Crow | 1.80 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Marshall Plan | 1.60 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Distorted Admiral | 12.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mr. Smarty Pants | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Adulation | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | New Moon | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Terrible Day (ARG) | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14A | 14 | Curtis | 0.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Minister’s Strike | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Tipsy Kitten | 4.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Escape Velocity | 2.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 4A | 4 | Daddy’s Home | 0.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Voodoo Song | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 12 | 12 | Honor Thy Father | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 4 | Prize Fight | 12.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | The Great Samurai | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Outrageous Bet | 15.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Majestic Tom | 12.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Halloween Horror | 15.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 1 | 3 | Noneedtoflatterme | 2.00 | 10.9 | 21-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Indian School | 20.00 | 12.6 | 24-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 3 | Pete Marwick | 2.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 8B | 8 | Linburgh’s Kitten | 0.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Honorable Treasure | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 2 | Infield Is In | 2.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | Scr |
| 7B | 7 | Royal Holiday | 0.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Untamed Domain | 20.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 3A | 3 | Country Squire | 0.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 9A | 9 | Johnny Action | 0.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Another | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Double Whammy | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Rockport Kat | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Alex the Terror | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Bayerd | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Shuffle Up | 2.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Voluntario | 5.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | El Charro | 6.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Sporting Chance | 3.50 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ezmosh | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Get the Facts | 4.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Machismo | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Givemeaminit | 15.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Mr. Discretionary | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tap Daddy | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bourbon Currency | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | D’funnything | 15.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Fleet Irish | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Gucci Factor | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Born for a Storm | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Build to Suit | 3.50 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | D’yer Mak’er | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Watergate | 20.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Heavy Meddle | 10.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | H Man | 20.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Terry O Geri | 8.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Bluegrass Express | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Gorelli | 12.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Formal Start | 30.00 | 11.7 | 22-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Partly Mocha | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Bolita Boyz | 4.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 10 | Vici | 5.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Canadian Flyer | 6.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 15A | 15 | Still Krz | 0.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 3A | 3 | Ray’swarrior | 0.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 3 | Sandy’z Slew | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Indy Hill | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Grand Candy | 4.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Hey Jabber Jaw | 6.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 1 | Spring to the Sky | 15.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Evacuation (AUS) | 6.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Luna de Loco | 5.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 6 | End Play | 8.00 | 11.1 | 21-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | High Hours (BRZ) | 15.00 | 12.1 | 23-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Most Beautiful (GB) | 20.00 | 3 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 13 | 13 | Josephine’s Moment | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 7 | Ancient Goddess (FR) | 20.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Stella Rose | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Artesian | 30.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 5 | Gioia Stella | 5.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Now Power | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Pricedtoperfection | 3.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Volatility Index | 2.50 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Shes a True Beauty | 30.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Annie Rocks | 2.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 2 | Penjade (FR) | 6.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Browse | 12.00 | 11 | 21-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Jc’s Shooting Star | 30.00 | 13.3 | 25-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Sanford S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Direct Dial | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Psychoanalyze | 3.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Free Drop Billy | 15.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Baffin | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Admiral Jimmy | 4.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Firenze Fire | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bal Harbour | 6.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Nauti Buoy | 10.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Diana S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Lady Eli | 0.80 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Dickinson | 4.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Quidura (GB) | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Antonoe | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | My Impression | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Harmonize | 20.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Chiltern Street | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Ghurair | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | High Noon Rider | 3.50 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Blarp | 5.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 16 | 16 | Carve | 5.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 15 | 15 | Doyouknowsomething | 4.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 5 | Southside Warrior | 15.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mills | 4.50 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Good Luck Gus | 3.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 2 | Aire Bueno (CHI) | 15.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Let Me Go First | 20.00 | 10.7 | 20-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 4 | Glorious Empire (IRE) | 12.00 | 10.7 | 20-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Bow Tie Affair | 20.00 | 11 | 21-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Souperfast | 4.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Shalako | 15.00 | 11.4 | 22-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Harbor King | 30.00 | 12.1 | 23-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.