July 21, 2017 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Cheroben | 30.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mr Leadbox | 12.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Paddybdancing | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Disorderly Conduct | 0.80 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Bull Market Richie | 4.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Fort Aiken | 3.50 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Back Page Star | 4.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 7 | Socialized | 8.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 2 | Smiling Gambler | 10.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Bella Be Proud | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Daddy’s Boo | 0.60 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Zeta Zody | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Yes Mongolia | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Turbulent War | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lights On Brite | 20.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Costly King | 1.40 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Ghost to Ghost | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Roarin Missile | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Francois | 2.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Cortege | 3.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Sea Rover | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Supermans Cape | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Jax Heritage | 4.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mas Mischief | 3.00 | 5 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 3 | Maxus | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Powerstretcher | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Hey Pretty Boy | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 5 | Checkmate Charlie | 12.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Pale Hose | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Specialeyes | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Strike Quiet | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Bajan Rhythm | 3.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bourbon Candy | 4.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 3 | Cashel Rock | 8.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Waiver Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Spittintumbleweeds | 12.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Assaulter | 0.20 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Eric’s Little Guy | 12.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | J K’s Dream | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Bartbaalu | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Glitter Road | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Alwaysmypleasure | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 2 | Valovich | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 5 | Summer Sweet | 2.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Mundy Road | 2.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Our Maria Celeste | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Crafty’s Way | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Evasive Storm | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Altered Mind | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 6 | Steel Strike | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mallory’s Channel | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Flashdance Road | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | One Sock Mauk | 10.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 3 | Boom Box | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Strict Observance | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 8 | Chicory Blue | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 7 | Force It | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Gray Mensch | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Electrifying | 4.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 5 | Bootleggin | 12.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.