July 20, 2017 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Sweet Daddy | 2.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Khamsa Tfu | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Leon Robert | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lasting Impact | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Rich E Z | 2.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Badger Bay | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Two Costly Bullets | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Goneghost | 1.80 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Alpha Kitalpha | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Urban Cool | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bold Rally | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Montana Kid | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Arch Rivalry | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Smoke ‘n’ Gloat | 2.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Blue Belt | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | What’s Up Dude | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Stand and Cheer | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Monday Pirate | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Saidtomyself | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 4 | Shackin Up | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | She’s Coal Fired | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Mongolian Shopper | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Meetmeforasmoke | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Hope N Wishes | 4.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Exximia (ARG) | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 6 | Mango’s Muse | 6.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 2 | Wind Chill Factor | 6.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Amaroq | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Royal Commish | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Assaulter | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 7 | Richie Rocks | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Congrats Given | 4.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Navy Seabee | 3.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Bowknot Billy | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Rio Seco | 12.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 7 | Travel Wish | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Stormy Louise | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Mongolian Time | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lil Rum Tum | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Staria Peach | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Sugarsugarsugar | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Ally Song | 8.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Garshie Marshie | 10.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Lakota Lucy | 15.00 | 9 | 17-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Confiscate | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dona Spey | 4.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 4 | Memory Bank | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Don’task Don’ttell | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Stormy Atlantis | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Thunder Down Under | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Sacred Legacy | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 1 | Hussar | 15.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Drayke’s Channel | 15.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Mummy Troll | 15.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 4 | Miss Blue Dot | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Espressa | 15.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Smokin Hot Momma | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 6 | Richie’slilwildcat | 2.50 | 4 | 8-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 4 | World Is My City | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 7 | Cowgirl Callie | 3.50 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Sistriot | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Lucky At Justice | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Champagne All Day | 8.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Swifty Cause | 30.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Don’t Hold Queens | 30.00 | 11 | 21-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.