June 30, 2017 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Hey Mike | 2.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Parlor | 2.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Chief Know It All | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Warrior’s Club | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Royal by Nature (IRE) | 4.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | All Right | 5.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Flashy Jewel | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Racer | 8.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Far Right | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Big Squeeze | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Egyptian | 3.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Carve | 4.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Hot Yankee | 4.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Run Away’s Sis | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Miss Coco | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Juliet Foxtrot | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 2 | Wilhelmina | 30.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Crack Your Whip | 4.50 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Gingermore | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Delusional K K | 3.50 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Slam Chowder | 5.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Pauline Revere | 1.80 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Tiz My Lady | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dona Spey | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 4 | Bodie’s Valentine | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Etsu | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Memories of Mom | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Fetch’s Mon | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Miss Lyricist | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 5 | Rollover Risk | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Blabimir | 4.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | High Multiple | 10.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Dattts Our Guy | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Caniform | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Uno Mas Brandy | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Altito | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Joey B | 10.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Spicoli | 12.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Bud’s Mr. B | 10.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Fat Daddy | 5.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Shoe Money | 20.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Start a War | 15.00 | 11 | 21-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Stakes) – Bashford Manor S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Mo Diddley | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 3 | Fig Jelly | 12.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Hardworkcleanlivin | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Ten City | 2.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Copper Bullet | 1.60 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | I’m Corfu | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 10 | Iconic | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sharm El Sheikh | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Huntin Buddy | 20.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hour City | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Mr Dewey | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 3 | Makeamericagreat | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 17 | 17 | Fireball Shot | 3.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 15 | 15 | American Sea | 20.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 6 | Kitten Silver | 6.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Too Tall Arkansas | 30.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Conquest Gladiator | 20.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 | |
| 18 | 18 | Tapsolute | 3.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 3 | Kitten’s Solution | 10.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 9 | Sakonnet | 3.50 | 12.3 | 23-1 | |
| 16 | 16 | Harangue | 30.00 | 14 | 26-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 8 | Harlan Strong (ARG) | 10.00 | 14 | 26-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Mascarpone | 20.00 | 16.3 | 31-1 | Scr |
| 13 | 11 | Lo’s Journey | 50.00 | 18 | 34-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Debutante S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Rockin Royalty | 20.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sunny Skies | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Red Dread | 30.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Lady O’Toole | 4.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Therighttobeararms | 30.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 7 | Patrona Margarita | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | She’s a Julie | 4.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Genuwine | 50.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Upset Brewing | 20.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Amberspatriot | 3.50 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Chelada | 30.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Caroline the Great | 20.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Waki Patriot | 5.00 | 11 | 21-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Drop Dead Red | 2.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Ervsayslethergo | 12.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Katalust | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Darion’s Dream | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Anythingyoucando | 4.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Annathela | 2.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Pageant Material | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Toasted | 8.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Kelly’s Landing Overnight S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | The Player | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Recount | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Woodland Walk | 30.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 3 | Limousine Liberal | 1.80 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 14 | 10 | Wyeth | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Schivarelli | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | Scr |
| 11 | 8 | The Truth Or Else | 6.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Vaporman | 30.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Wabel | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Fish Trappe Road | 20.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Solitary Ranger | 50.00 | 11.8 | 22-1 | Scr |
| 12 | 9 | Bayerd | 12.00 | 12 | 23-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Easy to Say | 30.00 | 12 | 23-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Hebbronville | 20.00 | 12.3 | 23-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | His Royal Majesty | 15.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Vilonia Strong | 20.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Cape Angel | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Flatter the Queen | 20.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Out of the Office | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 12 | 11 | Cadillac Red | 6.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Malibu At Midnight | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Victor Again | 10.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Laughing Levi | 30.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Unstabled | 15.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 9 | Off Road | 2.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Hardly a Secret | 12.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Hardly Seen Slim | 4.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.