June 29, 2017 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Downwind | 3.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Sultry | 4.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Dancing | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Snowfire | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Our Girl Abby | 4.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | True Dream | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Yes to the Dress | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Curlins Vow | 4.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Shut the Box | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Gettysburg | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Whole Lotta Luck | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Gray Sky | 4.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Running Back | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Starship Zeus | 3.50 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Main Road | 5.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Forge Ahead Franki | 4.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Homespun Hero | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Handiwork | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Control Stake | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Cashel Rock | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Paden | 4.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Conquest Twister | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Whyruawesome | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Sheer Mayhem | 3.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 6 | Harlan Punch | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Stapleton | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Horse Fly | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Combat Controller | 4.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Chargin Storm | 30.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Stone | 3.50 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Dublinyourmoney | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Rock Shandy | 12.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Ring Me Up | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Dona Spey | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 15 | 15 | Bodie’s Valentine | 15.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 7 | Ettalusive | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Belletta | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Aircraft Carrier | 4.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Ice Ice Princess | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Mundy Road | 4.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 16 | 16 | Rollover Risk | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 | Scr |
| 11 | 11 | Awesome Nona | 15.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mannerly | 3.50 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | May Lily | 20.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Kauai Moments | 20.00 | 11.8 | 22-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | No More Misery | 20.00 | 12.5 | 24-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 9 | Anothertequilashot | 5.00 | 13 | 25-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Val’s Lemon Drop | 20.00 | 13.8 | 26-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Clever Serve | 1.60 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Fancy Pinstripes | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Enchanting Embrace | 10.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Miss Malibu Style | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Benchmark Babe | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Queen Tutt | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Corona Mesa | 6.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Awesome Gal | 6.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Greeley and Ariana | 30.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Klassie Connect | 15.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Mines and Magic | 2.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Nineteenth Street | 4.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Put Da Blame On Me | 2.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Impasse | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Alotta Skirt | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 4 | Fleet Bertie | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Miss Mo Kelly | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Shes a True Beauty | 12.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Zapperini | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Grey Wizard | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Ntestinalfortitude | 2.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 7 | War Stroll | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Our Track | 30.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Wayward Kitten | 4.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Krewe Chief | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Archanova | 3.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 6 | Patrick’s Day | 6.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lucky Ramsey | 5.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Dothat Dance | 20.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Tarpys Zapper | 6.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Can’t Remember | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Coach’s Dream | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Awesome Fu | 3.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Dusty | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 10 | Samargo | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Demands Attention | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | My Boy Lane | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Proud to Live Free | 5.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 15 | 15 | Distorted Ransom | 30.00 | 9 | 17-1 | Scr |
| 16 | 16 | Correctamundo | 30.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | Scr |
| 12 | 12 | Teenertown Prince | 5.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Gold Room Scotty | 15.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Blame Bernie | 6.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | West End Gambler | 8.00 | 12.5 | 24-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Intelligent Flash | 20.00 | 14.5 | 27-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Serious Ink | 30.00 | 16 | 30-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.