June 28, 2017 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | In the Mood | 3.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Rose Candy | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 8 | Cinema Doll | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Ashy Taty | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Indysuglyduckling | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Ailish’s Buttercup | 5.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Kieran Street | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Escenderella | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Bonnie Bonnet | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Yooou Den | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Angel Haze | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Ribbon of Darkness | 12.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Daddy’s Memory | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Hold Me Tight | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Learning Curve | 3.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Alittlecomplicated | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Hollywood Star | 4.50 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Arrival | 3.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Spanned | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 7 | Ebben | 15.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Alexandros | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Creative Capital | 15.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Bourbon Resolution | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Just Like Richie | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Black Water | 5.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Strong Current | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Sergeant McNerney | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Blue Mesa | 12.00 | 7.1 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Ramblingrudyrags | 20.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Just Parkes | 20.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Jill’s Firebird | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Top Tiara | 4.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Din’s Fire | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Our Dream | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Cyclone Betty | 4.50 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Abboccato | 4.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Stormfield | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Social Icon | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Elegant Thunder | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lina’s Conquest | 50.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 9 | Brenda’s Gem | 30.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Sheer Mayhem | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 5 | Marine Pilot | 5.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 1A | 3 | Hay Listen Up | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Promote | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Providence | 4.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Blue Azul | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | All Up in Lights | 3.50 | 6.9 | 13-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 1 | King of All Media | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Wicked Zar | 6.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Sister Blues | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Flying Tipat | 2.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Beauly (GB) | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Yahtzee Queen | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Wessex | 3.50 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Taxable | 2.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Majestic Angel | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 4 | Lilly’s Dream | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 8 | Heavenly Daze | 5.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Firstrate Proposal | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 13 | 10 | Chocolate Bourbon | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Shamelessfi | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Precisely Ponti | 4.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Neak Up On Ya | 30.00 | 6 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 4 | Will Wants Candy | 8.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Clever Thunder | 10.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Budget Cut | 12.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Big Blue Arrow | 5.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Like a Haint | 6.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Three Natty Patty | 20.00 | 11.4 | 22-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Brendas Conquest | 30.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 | Scr |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.