June 25, 2017 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Elwood’s Advice | 0.00 | 0.9 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Elitch | 0.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | U S S Altair | 0.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Silver Wraith | 0.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sabbatarian | 0.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Silverdollardreams | 0.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Little B | 0.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Proven Warrior | 0.00 | 0.9 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Restless Rambler | 0.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Shoot Craps | 0.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bobby V. | 0.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | On the River | 0.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Dream Seeker | 0.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Love Your Humor | 0.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 6 | Sounds Divine | 0.00 | 6 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 7 | One Hot Pairadice | 0.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Gurlin | 0.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | I. Damiana | 0.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Blueberry Shine | 0.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Miss Mamacita | 0.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Harlan’s Rose | 0.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Double First | 0.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Blue Haze of Fire | 0.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | See the Bird | 0.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Villa Elena | 0.00 | 0.9 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Holiday’s Angel | 0.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Blame the Law | 0.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Fault | 0.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Prado Vision | 0.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Sully’s Dream | 0.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Little Irishdancer | 0.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Sea Holiday | 0.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | I’m Indy Havin Fun | 0.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Curlino | 0.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Pea Shooter Pro | 0.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Alabama Tide | 0.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Abbaa | 0.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Cha Mono | 0.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Beach Hut | 0.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Circle Unbroken | 0.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Greeleys Charm | 0.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Stone Mountain | 0.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Twinsanity | 0.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Likeitlikethat | 0.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Pioneerandaviator | 0.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Assume Disclosure | 0.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Union Cat | 0.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tam Tam Attack | 0.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Blake’s Lucky Star | 0.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Attack the Shack | 0.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Stamped | 0.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7A | 7 | Porridge | 0.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Charity Stripe | 0.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Friend of Liberty | 0.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Inspeightofyou | 0.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Sister Kan | 0.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Dial Me | 0.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Ours to Run | 0.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 1A | 1 | White Gold | 0.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 7 | Mia Bella Rossa | 0.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Tipsy Kitten | 0.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Dawn Raider | 0.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Young American | 0.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | War Union | 0.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cicerone | 0.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Gorse | 0.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Sir Ballantine | 0.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Mas Mischief | 0.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Durango Dan | 0.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Midnight Oak | 0.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 9 | French Command | 0.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Dilettante | 0.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Awesome Saturday | 0.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Chesapeake City | 0.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Rocky Tough | 0.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | One of a Kind | 0.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Power Walker | 0.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Watch Me Whip | 0.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Broken Promise | 0.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Souper Fly Over | 0.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Harlan’s Mischief | 0.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Zipp On By | 0.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Favorite Song | 0.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Total Cooperation | 0.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Vandelay | 0.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Behavioral Bias | 0.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Run Tappy | 0.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Such a Tease | 0.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Bow and Arrow | 0.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Laureato | 0.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.