June 22, 2017 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Rhythm Park | 2.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Rockstar Jam | 12.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Manhattan Mischief | 0.80 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bad Student | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Fourth of July | 4.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Snack Shack | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Lady Cleopatra | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Blackberry Farm | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Awesometastic | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 1A | 7 | Naughty Little Nun | 2.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 2 | Blaze Star | 2.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Stay Spicy | 6.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Wyatt’s Town | 3.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Grandpa Knows Best | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Baffin | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | No Limit | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Call a Cop | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 1A | 9 | Big Iron | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Mauk’s Tuff | 12.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Fred’stwirlincandy | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 3 | Undercover Lover | 12.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 9 | 10 | Disco Dave | 15.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | Indy Hill | 1.60 | 2 | 4-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 6 | Whiskey Tree | 15.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1A | 6 | Iron Mane | 1.60 | 3.3 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 3 | Noshackleshere | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Angelo’s Ashes | 2.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Johnny Obvious | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Jive Daddy | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Mistake Present | 2.50 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Arodg | 3.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | How’s My Bud | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 4 | Tempestuous Angel | 15.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Drago’s Pearl | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Scamp | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Dreammeister | 4.50 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Doctor Lee | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Swordfish | 2.50 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Prevailing Bets | 10.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Ludlum | 20.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Laney | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 10 | 11 | Dial Me | 20.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 3 | Funny Holiday | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1A | 8 | Noelle’s Mischief | 3.00 | 4 | 8-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 5 | Golden Domer | 3.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Boudicea’s Revenge | 50.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Star Quest | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Minnie Blip | 10.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 7 | Marcy Darcy | 3.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Kaylen’s Revenge | 12.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Champagne Problems | 10.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 10 | Doxology | 3.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 1A | 9 | Sentence | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Naylor | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Dream Dance | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Adore | 5.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Classic Bo | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 2 | Care | 3.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Fuhriously Kissed | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Starlight Express | 10.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sweet N Wicked | 15.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | High Street | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lucky Number One’s | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Very Elegant | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 2 | Brekfastatturfanys | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Cape Dancer | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Superior Eye Q | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Big Sigh | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Imallaboutthatbass | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Forty Christina | 4.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Wonderful Kiss | 30.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.