June 17, 2017 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Audrey’s Double | 3.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Tizthesound | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Play the Break | 2.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Por Favor | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Okbyecya | 3.50 | 5 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 8 | Leeloo’s Journey | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Scatmeifucan | 10.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Double First | 3.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 6 | I. Damiana | 8.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Cause You Can | 12.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | High Multiple | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Silver Wraith | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Benediction | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hardly Home | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Dr. Philan | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Little B | 3.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Cerro (IRE) | 2.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Candy Ruby | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mesoma | 2.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Toasting Master | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Whyruawesome | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 5 | Discreetness | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Kasseopia (GB) | 4.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Fifth Title | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Kismet’s Heels | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Race Me Home (IRE) | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Sixty Five (FR) | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Paddy Not Patty | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mucho Macho Bets | 8.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Space Mountain | 10.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Ingadore | 12.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Mongol G | 20.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Stakes) – Matt Winn S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Aquamarine | 5.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Excitations | 4.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | McCraken | 0.80 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Colonelsdarktemper | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Society Beau | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mo’s Mojo | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Stakes) – Wise Dan S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Security Risk | 5.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Pleuven (FR) | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bondurant | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Conquest Panthera | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Chocolate Ride | 5.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Blofeld | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Thatcher Street | 4.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Kasaqui (ARG) | 6.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Fleur De Lis H.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Big World | 6.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Tiger Moth | 12.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Forever Unbridled | 0.80 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Crooked Stick | 30.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 6 | Apologynotaccepted | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Weep No More | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Romantic Vision | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Carrumba | 6.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Walkabout | 10.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Stephen Foster H.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Breaking Lucky | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Mo Tom | 20.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bird Song | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Texas Chrome | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Stanford | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Gun Runner | 0.80 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Honorable Duty | 6.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Hawaakom | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Regret S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Summer Luck | 10.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Blame the Law | 15.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Sameeha | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Proctor’s Ledge | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Starr Bear | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Like a Hurricane | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Chubby Star | 5.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sweeping Paddy | 4.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | La Manta Gris | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Fizzy Friday (GB) | 10.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Savannah Belle | 12.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Anothertequilashot | 30.00 | 12 | 23-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 6 | Golden Amber | 6.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Missseventhirteen | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Mellwood Summer | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Miss Kentucky | 2.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Belletta | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | What a Star | 3.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 4 | Thirteen Songs | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Curvymissmiller | 12.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 2 | Sweet Tatum | 10.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Socata | 15.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Urbane Legend | 20.00 | 11 | 21-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 5 | Numbers Game | 30.00 | 12 | 23-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Portal | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sevier | 12.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Union Salute | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 2 | Bourbon Country | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 4 | Unbridled Rebel | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Leading Cause | 3.50 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Fireball Shot | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Tapsolute | 3.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Harlan’s Vador (ARG) | 20.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Hard Fought | 15.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Ford’spowerstroke | 30.00 | 11 | 21-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.