June 16, 2017 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Ritzy Lass | 3.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Kentucky Dancer | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Bottle Walk | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Hold Me Tight | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Big Red Seven | 5.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Dustem Carolina | 4.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Rose to Glory | 5.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Rilla | 5.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Cheyenne Blues | 1.60 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Disones Pretty | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Gracequinnannamady | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Miss Chatty Cat | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Eufaula | 5.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Equulei | 10.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Lady O’Toole | 4.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Reality Queen | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Mileva | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Sunny’s Funny | 1.80 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Southern Moon | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 7 | Hot N Sweet | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 1A | 8 | Kieran Street | 8.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 5 | Lawless | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | United Stand | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Bourbon Country | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 6 | Tapizone | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Santa Americana | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tipsy Kitten | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Encrypt | 2.50 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | American Ride | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Jumpin Jack Cash | 20.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 3 | Hardly Seen Slim | 5.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Latimer | 15.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Workingforaliving | 12.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Mascarpone | 5.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 10 | Mark for Good | 15.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Ironclad | 2.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Epic Journey | 10.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Handiwork | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 5 | Raagheb | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Rich Daddy | 2.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Albano | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Oathkeeper | 4.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Go Navy Go | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 7 | Hollywood Critic | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Knights Key | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Perfect Execution | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Mister Maestro | 5.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Elitch | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 5 | Attraction | 6.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | I’m Ready to Roll | 15.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Halloween Horror | 12.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Ready Strike | 6.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 8 | Sabbatarian | 15.00 | 11 | 21-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Miss Helen | 3.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Model by Artie | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Fancy Pinstripes | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Right On By | 2.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Benchmark Babe | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Parking Ticket | 3.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | In Focus | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Shadow Rock | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Maniacal | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Alaskan Prince | 12.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mesoma | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 2 | Wagon Boss | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Manhattan Mischief | 2.50 | 6.5 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 3 | Mongol Bull | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Element | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Control Stake | 8.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Nun the Less | 8.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | While Ye May | 10.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Nifty Fifty | 30.00 | 12 | 23-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Spicoli | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Buddy Bud | 30.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Red Blue and True | 30.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Oriental Crown | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Coach Moore | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Conquest Goinggone | 3.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Start a War | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | P J’s Awesome | 10.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Power Plant | 10.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 6 | Empire Taker | 10.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Slope | 12.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Castlefinn | 15.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.