June 15, 2017 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Smart Question | 15.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Midnight’s Fantasy | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Conquest Hiosilver | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Barry’s Swing | 2.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Due to His Charm | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Rippin Ranger | 3.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Northern Ranger | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Transgress | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Battle At Sea | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Free Drop Billy | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Onejump | 4.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Make Noise | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Orbatron | 3.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Tememon | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Chip Leader | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Sir Dudley Digges | 1.60 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Suddenbreakingnews | 15.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Big Changes | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | For Greater Glory | 2.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 3 | Surgical Strike | 3.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | One Go All Go | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 4 | Dak Attack | 1.80 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Sporting Chance | 8.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Something Bird | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | True Loyalty | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tap Daddy | 2.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 4 | Make Mine Neat | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 6 | All in the Game | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | On My Toes | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | To Be Famous | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hidden Garden | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Lady Soul | 3.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Na Pali Spirit | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Crowned Princess | 5.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Lost Prado | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Canette | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 9 | Devious Rumor | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Doxology | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Her Love for Pappy | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Silvertoni | 4.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Fort Marsh | 5.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Fiesta | 4.50 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Fields of Song (IRE) | 8.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Justa Lady | 4.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Tia Flor | 30.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Nevrmesswithrichie | 20.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Jersey Street | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Seventh Sense (TUR) | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Pontifical | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | El Venue | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 4 | Reedini | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Colonel Dan | 5.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mexico Memories | 6.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Bella Bella | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cuddle Kitten | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Spearette | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Street Performer | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Memories of Mom | 4.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Rock Sapphire (KOR) | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Seventh Tee | 8.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Malibu Stella | 4.00 | 8 | 15-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 3 | Waltzwithmecurlin | 10.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Desert Poem | 2.50 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Rollover Risk | 8.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 8 | No More Misery | 30.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Summer Sable | 15.00 | 12.8 | 24-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.