June 11, 2017 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Enchantera | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Philoctetes | 2.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Entertainer | 15.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Catanova | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Araqeel | 4.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Main Road | 2.50 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Indy Hill | 3.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | It Is Dejavu | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Red Hot Chile | 2.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Spring Game | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Assume Disclosure | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Tiz too Much | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Painted Desert | 8.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mr Ferry | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Elwood’s Advice | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Heat Road | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Wicked Wink | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Just Due | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Sharm | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Twenty Gauge | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Greely Is Back | 4.50 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Confederate Rags | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Gabriel’s Cat | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Stonetacular | 1.60 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Impasse | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Miner’s Cat | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Blue Prize (ARG) | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Motown Lady | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | You Cheated | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Rockstar Jam | 10.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Salsa’s Return | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Allidoisdreamofyou | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Nite of the Hunter | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Tarpy’s Surprise | 2.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Claymaker | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Rapid Red | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Morning Buzz | 3.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Hour City | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Huntin Buddy | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Makeamericagreat | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1A | 7 | Rollin Smoke | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Higher Factor | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 11 | Your Way | 5.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 1 | Boyd Crowder | 10.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Turf Titan | 3.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 6 | Levanto (ARG) | 8.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Conquest Gladiator | 15.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | D C Nine | 12.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Capital Letters | 4.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Cutacorner | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Vaporman | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Wildwood Dancer | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Shut the Box | 3.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Rank | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | General Downs | 5.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Dunk a Din | 5.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Heartbreak Hill | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lady Constance | 2.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Myositis Mystique | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Holiday’s Angel | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Warrioress | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Pretty Greeley | 5.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Clever Thunder | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Miss Discreet | 6.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Nice Not Nice | 4.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Rocky Tough | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Horse Fly | 15.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sparty Boy | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Kitten’s Karma | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Silver Defense | 5.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Durango Dan | 3.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Tizk Tizk | 10.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Gorse | 8.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | Mo Bourbon | 10.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 9 | Kid Perfect | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Demands Attention | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Stolen Candy | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Out of the Office | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Altito | 6.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Laughing Levi | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Private Party | 6.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Kiss My Note | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Faction Cat | 3.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Hickory Island | 8.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Hardly a Secret | 6.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Ludlum | 15.00 | 12 | 23-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Intelligent Flash | 30.00 | 14 | 26-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.