June 8, 2017 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | Nothings Changed | 3.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Just Like Richie | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2B | 6 | Prince Abubu | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Reride | 2.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 3 | Itching for Attack | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 7 | Thunderup | 4.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 1A | 6 | All in the Game | 3.50 | 6 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 5 | Tree Peeps | 4.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Big Kick | 3.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bob’s Gone Wild | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Louies Flower | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Indy Awesome | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tales of War | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Frost Or Frippery | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Can’t Remember | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Hay Listen Up | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Tempestuously | 15.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Treadwell | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Mizzing Frazier | 3.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Swordfish | 2.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Trenton Bridge | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Dear Elaine | 4.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Scatter Gun | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Hone In | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Celestial Insight | 2.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lovely Bernadette | 4.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Queenofthepalace (NZ) | 2.50 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Its a Journey | 5.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Rosie My Rosie | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Titanium | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Merilore | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | C Islandsurprise | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Annabelle | 4.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 4 | Ribbon of Darkness | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | One Sock Mauk | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Joey B | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Shoe Money | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Bud’s Bayonet | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Little Bit Irish | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Dos Cuernos | 4.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Key to the Bank | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Appealing Jazz | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Grandpa’s Dream | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Curlins Vow | 15.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Burgameister | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Ntestinalfortitude | 0.80 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Starship Zeus | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | King Maynard | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Cortege | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 9 | High Multiple | 10.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Alittlevodka | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Thamaan | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Archangel Rose | 3.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Marksman | 2.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Young American | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Tight Rock | 8.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Write in Candidate | 6.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Two Stepping Groom | 30.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | King of All Media | 10.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.