June 4, 2017 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Jordan’s Henny | 1.80 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | I’mluckysgirl | 8.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Star Quest | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Whole Scoop | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | All Laced Up | 2.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Smoking Romance | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | True Ten | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mellow Fellow | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Leroi’s Thrill | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Internet Success | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Fuhrious Warrior | 5.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Sully’s Dream | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | More Than Kisses | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Myositis Mystique | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 7 | Pageant Material | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 4 | Tizthesound | 4.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Araminta | 5.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Oh Dear Lord | 3.50 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Simply Great | 4.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | All Shacked Up | 3.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 5 | Alaskan Prince | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Blaze’n Prospector | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Mesoma | 2.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Johnny Obvious | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 4 | Bajan Cash | 6.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Private Time | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Candy King | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Heartwood | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Zipp On By | 12.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Vandelay | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Conquest Archie | 4.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Yondering | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Stamped | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Harlan Punch | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Producer | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Marine Pilot | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Promote | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bowman West | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Howell Mountain | 5.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | All Up in Lights | 10.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Drip Brew | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Victory’s Secret | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Candrasa | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Heavenly Daze | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Too Much to Bear | 3.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Pemba | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Like a Haint | 5.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Greely’s Comet | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Silver Dust | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Underpressure | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1A | 8 | Power Walker | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 7 | Untimed Play | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Long On Luck | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Donwell | 3.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Hembree | 5.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | McCormick | 5.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Speight Swiftly | 2.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Go Navy Go | 30.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Cherry Wine | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Western Reserve | 2.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Hot Item | 50.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Galton | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Flashy Chelsey | 10.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Forge (GB) | 3.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Zapperini | 20.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Ghurair | 15.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Pinson | 3.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | Scr |
| 13 | 13 | For Greater Glory | 3.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 5 | War Stroll | 30.00 | 12.3 | 23-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Rich Daddy | 4.00 | 12.8 | 24-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 4 | Dothat Dance | 50.00 | 13.5 | 26-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.