May 27, 2017 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Greeleys Charm | 2.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Full Heart | 4.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Audrey’s Double | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 1 | Sky Wonder | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Rapid Red | 2.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Twenty Gauge | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Moon Gate Warrior | 10.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Bluegrass Beat | 10.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Lieutenant Seany O | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Paden | 2.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 2 | Tarpy’s Surprise | 1.60 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Morning Buzz | 4.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Mines and Magic | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | She Mabee Wild | 10.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Durango | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Blip n’ Th Bye | 3.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 4 | Fleet Bertie | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Stageplay | 3.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Sea Cloud | 4.50 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Money Flows | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Guest Suite | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Flashy Jewel | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ruffolo | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Egyptian | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Raagheb | 5.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Fish Trappe Road | 3.50 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Stakes) – Keertana Overnight S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 6 | Quiet Business | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Daring Duchess | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Northern Smile | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Majestic Angel | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 5 | Grey Stark | 3.50 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Yahtzee Queen | 30.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Giovanna Blues | 5.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 4 | Rachel Wall | 4.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Upstage | 12.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Gulf Front | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Tiz My Lady | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Soliloquy | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Ring Me Up | 2.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bourgeois | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | My Bright Idea | 3.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Wholehearted | 6.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Enchanting Embrace | 12.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Mostly Awesome | 20.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Awestruck | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Never Hungover | 15.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Pinch Hit | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Song of Spring | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Make Amends | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Charity Stripe | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Champagne Problems | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Daria’s Angel | 5.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Marcy Darcy | 3.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Remember the Alimo | 4.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Hidden Garden | 12.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | I’m With Miller | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Front Row Debbie | 5.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 5 | Little Irishdancer | 4.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Queen Tutt | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Memories of Mom | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Lipstickonmycollar | 5.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Brekfastatturfanys | 20.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Desert Poem | 8.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Awesome Gal | 10.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Rollover Risk | 30.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 9 | Deedeezee | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Phone Chick | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 7 | Why Not Be Queen | 20.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Ivy Bell | 4.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Red Hot Suzy | 50.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Julerette | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Twirl Girl | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sweet Halory | 6.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | One True Kiss | 5.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 3 | Adore | 5.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Classic Bo | 15.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Care | 5.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Winning Colors S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Finley’sluckycharm | 0.60 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Ramona’s Wildcat | 20.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Athena | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mayla | 15.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Game Time Decision | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Pleasant Tales | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 2 | Sweetgrass | 4.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Covey Trace | 30.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Enduring Honor | 3.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Gladtobehere | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Silver Wraith | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Oriental Crown | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Burntwood | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Walker’s Way | 6.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Speedy A. P. | 3.50 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Two Stepping Groom | 30.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Kielbasa | 8.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Northern Ranger | 30.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.